How will Tibet play in Taiwan?

Ma Ying-jeou; Photo: Andrew Wong/Getty Images

Saturday's presidential election in Taiwan is fast approaching, but until the last few days, the outcome had seemed fairly predictable. The Kuomintang (KMT), which favors better relations with Beijing, appeared to have a lock on the presidency after voters voiced their disapproval of current President Chen Shui-bian's more confrontational stance during January's legislative contests.

Now, many analysts are wondering if China's ongoing crackdown in Tibet is going to help Frank Hsieh, the candidate from Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP is certainly seeking to capitalize, upping its anti-mainland rhetoric and warning that Taiwan could suffer Tibet's fate if the KMT wins. Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT's candidate, has pushed back, saying, "Tibet is under mainland China rule, and Taiwan is not" and that the comparison "hurt Taiwan's status."

In the end, I'd still bet Ma will be able to pull it out after a bitter campaign (at a DPP rally on Sunday, the education minister accused Ma's father of "screwing" his adopted daughter). But the situation in Tibet may push Ma to be a lot less friendly to Beijing than he originally intended to be -- and those hoping for a reduction in tensions across the Taiwan Strait may be sorely disappointed.

(Hat tip: China Digital Times)