Will Russia stir up trouble in the Middle East?

ANATOLIAN NEWS AGENCY

As Russia expert Dimitri Trenin notes, Russia's return to the world stage is more than a passing phenomenon. Russia has experienced eight consecutive years of economic growth, is about to join the WTO, and has laid eyes on OECD membership. High energy prices are keeping the economy rolling. No wonder President Vladimir Putin is laughing.

Yet at the same time, Russia often looks like a screaming child claiming its right to play power politics with the bigger kids. The Russians have missed few opportunities lately to create headaches for Western leaders. Consider Putin's speech in Munich, his address to the parliament, and his vitriolic rhetorical roundhouse before the G8 summit.

If Moscow is out to reclaim its great-power status, this is no way to go about it. Russia's foreign policy appears erratic and reactive. So although Russia has largely been a responsible member of the Middle East Quartet—which also includes the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations—it's not hard to imagine that some in the Kremlin see Hamas's coup in Gaza as a political opportunity to exploit. Keeping the region aflame and oil prices high is surely in Russia's interest, and Prussian President Vladimir Putin has played footsie with Hamas before. It would be tempting to break with the Quartet's policy of isolating the militant Islamic group.

But it would be a mistake for Russia to reprise the Soviet Union's role as champion of radical anti-Western groups in the Middle East. The world has become vastly more complicated since the end of the Cold War; no longer is a gain for the West necessarily a loss for Russia, and vice versa. Hang tight, Vlad!