The thin red line

Posted By Andrew Kamons Wednesday, April 12, 2006 - 3:11 PM Share

Iran’s announcement that it had succeeded in enriching uranium should have come as no surprise, considering that this is exactly what they said they would do when they broke the IAEA seals on its centrifuges in January. Still, there is increasing talk that the country is crossing a “red line.”

The real question is not whether they can complete the fuel process on a minimal scale but whether they can really press ahead with the 3,000 centrifuges they have planned to be operational by 2006, something that would enable them to produce enough enriched uranium to actually power something meaningful, like a power plant--or a bomb. Does Tuesday’s announcement give any indication of whether Iran is making significant progress in that regard? The answer is, not really. In fact, there’s a good chance that the statement had nothing to do with passing a technical milestone and everything to do with political timing. My guess is that the announcement is more brinkmanship, designed to push the Security Council to act before it is of a unified position. As of now, China and Russia are not ready to approve more than a mild response.

Another question to ask is not what’s going on in Natanz, but what’s going on elsewhere. After all, Natanz is a large complex, mostly above ground, and well known to inspectors and the U.S. military. It is closely monitored, and if it came down to it, should not be a challenge to target with air strikes. An industrial-scale operation at Natanz should not worry the international community nearly as much as an operation of any size conducted at a hidden location elsewhere in the country. And that’s information we can be certain will not be announced in a press conference until the “red line” really has been crossed.

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