Russia sees U.S. involvement in Georgia

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Russia sees U.S. involvement in Georgia

Mon, 08/11/2008 - 1:42pm

As Andrew Kramer and Ellen Barry's heartbreaking report from Gori makes clear, Georgians feel betrayed and abandoned by their American allies. The Russian media isn't really reporting it that way though:

Kommersant reports that 2,500 to 3,000 mercenaries from Ukraine, the Baltic states and the South Caucuses are fighting in Georgia under the direct command of U.S. military instructors.
According to wire service RIA Novosti, U.S military transport planes were being used to fly in Georgian troops from Iraq to join the fighting. Vladimir Putin has also commented on this.
Izvestia claims (in Russian) that an African-American military instructor was arrested with a group Georgian explosive experts in South Ossetia. (Hat tip: Lawyers, Guns, and Money) There are also some odd reports of "dark-skinned bodies" being found.

Whatever the truth of these reports, when this war comes to its (hopefully imminent) conclusion, the United States may find that both sides feel stabbed in the back.

Joshua Keating | Permalink |

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( filed under:

Caucasus | Georgia | Russia | U.S. Foreign Policy

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The New Russian Empire

by yuguri on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 1:40pm

This situation in Caucuses is completely out of hand. The invasion of Georgia proper by Russian tanks and jets crosses a very bright line that the US should have been able to stop. Russia is at war with our ally and all The West is doing is making weak, desperate pleas for cease-fire. If the Georgian government falls, it may send a terrible message that the US will not back you up in a crisis. While the Bush Administration has been spending all it's time and tax dollars ineffectively fighting Arabs, Pashtuns, and Persians, Vladamir Putin has been busy putting together all the pieces for the reemergence of the Russian Empire. The "Russian Federation" today is highly centralized, militarily aggressive, resource-rich, authoritarian, and nationalistic, all traits that make me think Empire. I opposed the war in Iraq for geo-political reasons, so I'm not a big hawk, but I think some level of response here is absolutely required so not to invite future incursions into Allied countries.

Should be able to stop?

by jgarzik on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 2:04pm

I think there is little doubt this is Russia, building a new empire. They have been working on South Ossetia and Abkhazia for a while.

But the US should have been able to stop this (invasion of undisputed Georgia)? That is a stretch.

Diplomatically, the US cannot really charge Russia with being the initiator of the conflict. Georgia touched off this latest spat; they over-reached (which is precisely what Russia wanted).

Militarily, this is really not a good time for the US to tangle with Russia, even though the Russian military remains a shadow of its former self.

This conflict was long predicted by many, and the US and others have been telling Georgia to avoid falling into a situation just like this. Russia has played the long game with sufficient skill that we cannot clearly declare them the aggressors, and given current geopolitics a war with Russia over Georgia just won't fly.

Jeff @ Armchair FP

Re: Georgia and the Russian Empire

by yuguri on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 2:35pm

Russia is absolutely the initiator of this conflict and no one should pretend otherwise, it has been pushing, prodding, and needling it's way into exactly the situation we see today. Doesn't arming another countries insurgents with machine-guns and anti-aircraft weapons, giving them your passports, declaring them your citizens and invading with your army the moment one of these insurgents gets killed or captured make -you- the aggressor? I am ready to concede it may be too late now to stop the fall of Georgia, things have gone too far, but I feel we could have prevented this, and should have. Russia's buildup of troops along the border has been noted for quite some time, there was ample time to prepare for this conflict. We should have fast-tracked Georgian NATO and EU membership excluding the conflict zones of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and proceeded to arm Georgia to the teeth. If a country is recognized as a stable and democratic ally of West, we should assert our willingness to defend them.

Willingness to defend

by jgarzik on Tue, 08/12/2008 - 12:57am

If Georgian NATO and EU membership had been fast-tracked, what then? Defending Georgia would imply a direct conflict between US and Russia, a major war between two nuclear powers, right? Or if not that, at a minimum a Korean-style DMZ with armed soldiers on both sides (only thousands of miles longer?).

We are far, far away from that point, and nobody really wants to live in a world like that. We don't want a world where entangling alliances cause a small border dispute to conflate into a major war. We don't want a return to the Cold War, even if Russia at times appears to.

Jeff @ Armchair FP

Gori falls, second front opens

by jgarzik on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 2:48pm

AP, CNN and BBC are reporting Gori taken, and second front opened. AP link

by jgarzik on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 2:54pm

It is only fair to link to a BBC report with the Russian denial. The CNN story on this reports a CNN crew seeing the Georgian military leaving Gori "at high speed".

South Ossetia

by worldview on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 3:41pm

This is a very unfortunate situation and the lack of journalists in the area is not helping, but we may be getting only one side of the story in the US. The fact that the UN was unable to come up with a statement is further evidence of how political this really is. There are many news reports in Russian that seem to be confirmed by bloggers, also in Russian, that the Georgian government is the original aggressor and the Georgian army has been targeting civil populations all along in Tskhinvali. Allegedly, there was one instance in Gori where a Russian plane hit one residential target by mistake, but for some reason, the media is only focusing on that one instance, and not reporting on the situation in Tskhinvali, where there are thousands of people hiding in basements, and now may be flooded out by a dam that was supposedly destroyed on purpose by the Georgian army on their way out of the area. There is also an Israeli web site reporting that the US is redirecting heavy artillery that was originally going to Iraq, now being sent to Georgia through an airport in Jordan. The refugees on video, speaking in Russian, talk about getting into cars, trying to leave the area, and give personal accounts of Georgian troops shelling their vehicles, forcing them to run into the forest, and then continuing on foot after their vehicles have been trashed. Of course, Russia is taking full advantage of the situation to occupy as much land as they possibly can and then good luck in giving it back!

We should have fast-tracked

by Cynical on Mon, 08/11/2008 - 3:46pm

We should have fast-tracked their memberships into NATO and EU excluding the conflict zones. Did I really read what you wrote correctly? The EU is an economic union and it plays no role in any military conflict. Membership is based on economic conditions - Georgia is far from stable economically and why should they be given a priority and 'fast-tracked' while all other markets have had to work to gain their status. As to your comment about fast-tracking their NATO membership and excluding the conflict zones. Perhaps if you had been so keen to grant independent status to the zones before this hopefully short war, there might not have been a war to blog about. How very typical of the West to switch views when it suits them. The Georgian President knew how Russia would react. He knowingly put the people of South Ossetia at risk. He has been critical about Russian politics - his right to freedom of speech - but then he cries to the West when Russian halts exports from Georgia to Russia. Don't bite the hand that feeds you without first finding a true, alternative way to sustain if not grow your economy. Being friendly with Bush is not the way. All the Georgian president has done is put his people at risk. Both 'sides' are wrong and it is the people - the poor people who are made to suffer. Again.

fast-tracking

by yuguri on Tue, 08/12/2008 - 12:06am

I was in error to write of fast tracking for EU as per your point about economic conditions, indeed EU membership is a long and complicated process directed by Europe, but I would personally would have loved to see the west investing in newly democratic and modern new states. As per NATO membership, I see the alliance as a definitive promise of protection, and I will continue to think that the West should have been able to offer that to Georgia proper. Abandoning Georgia and allowing President Saakashvili to be blamed for Russia's power grab simply makes the US look weak, again. Just because Bush and Saakashvili are right-wing fools doesn't mean we should be OK with the Russian Empire stomping our allies, even if you think they deserve it.