Could Russia be the winner from subprime?
Anders Åslund predicts in today's Moscow Times that Russia's oil revenues and current account surplus will help it weather the subprime storm. In fact, the country may become increasingly attractive to Western investors:
What better safe haven for investors is there than Russia? First, the ruble is undervalued. Second, Russian equities rose moderately last year and are quite cheap by any comparison. Third, commodities are scarce and their prices have surged for long. As they have become securitized, they can easily be purchased by ordinary people. They are likely to be a prime object of speculation or just safekeeping. As a consequence, Russia's export revenues might soar even more and the economy will flourish, rendering all kinds of Russian assets -- real estate, stocks and bonds -- attractive to foreign investors. At the same time, the country's macroeconomic indicators will continue to ride and further attract investors.
The main worry, Åslund feels, is that excessive capital inflows will create a "resource curse" the fosters corruption and thwarts efforts at reform.
I would only add that if Dmitry Medvedev's government plans to attract foreign investment during the financial crisis, shakedown tactics, such as those it is currently employing against BP's Russian venture, need to go.













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