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Beginning tomorrow morning, John McCain has to grab the bull by the horns and get serious about his vice presidential pick. I generally think too much hubbub surrounds the whole process. Historically, VP running mates have had little impact on a candidate's performance in November. But given McCain's age and intraparty troubles, the decision could be disproportionately important for him.

It was more or less a foregone conclusion back in 2000 that, had he won the nomination, McCain would have asked Sen. Chuck Hagel to join the ticket. But Barack Obama's staff is now openly floating Hagel, the Republican Party's most prominent Iraq war critic, as a possible running mate for the Illinois senator. So, this time around, Hagel seems an unlikely choice for McCain. Early last month, I argued that the Arizona senator ought to take a long hard look at Newt Gingrich. Other names floating around at the time included Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, and Sens. Tom Coburn, Sam Brownback, and Richard Burr, as well as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. They all remain contenders.

In recent days, Condoleezza Rice's name has been appearing with increasing frequency. But, as Condi herself is prone to reminding people, she's never run for anything and has no desire to do so. Not to mention the fact that she carries with her all of the baggage of the Bush administration and has yet to stake out positions on the economy and the social issues about which conservatives care most.

In a conversation with Reuters, Douglas Brinkley puts Colin Powell's name on the table. Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is reported to be on the shortlist by his home state newspaper. Meanwhile, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who certainly would have been on McCain's shortlist and is campaigning hard for him, now says she won't accept an invitation to run with McCain and, instead, is considering her own bid for the nomination in 2010.

One person who's getting only a little attention, but perhaps should get more, is Chris Cox. The former California congressman and China hawk is a poster boy for conservatives and currently heads the Securities and Exchange Commission. He would both bring California into play and bring some much needed economic acumen to McCain's camp. That could make things interesting.