We don't yet know how Raúl Castro plans to govern Cuba. Will he cling to the old ways? Or now that his brother Fidel is formally stepping down, will he be more bold in pursuing economic and political reform? And what role will the United States play in this process, especially in an election year with Florida and its Cuban population in play?

Chances are high that U.S. politicians will choose the easy route and continue a policy of isolation that has failed for five decades. But hope springs eternal! Perhaps the United States will choose to engage rather than punish. If that happens, U.S. policymakers will need a strategy. FP Editor in Chief Moises Naim had a perceptive column a few years back on the lessons would-be Cuba reformers need to remember in thinking about how to help that country transition from communist dictatorship to a free society. It still rings true today:

Lesson one: Failure is more common than success in the transition to a democratic market economy. Lesson two: The less internationally integrated, more centralized, and more personalized a former communist regime was, the more traumatic and unsuccessful its transition will be. Lesson three: Dismantling a communist state is far easier and faster than building a functional replacement for it. Lesson four: The brutal, criminal ways of a powerful Communist party with a tight grip on public institutions are usually supplanted by the brutal, criminal ways of powerful private business conglomerates with a tight grip on public institutions. Lesson five: Introducing a market economy without a strong and effective state capable of regulating it gives resourceful entrepreneurs more incentive to emulate Al Capone than Bill Gates.

It is therefore safe to assume that if the Castro regime suddenly implodes, Cuba will end up looking more like Albania than the Bahamas.