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It seems clear from Fred Kaplan's profile of Robert Gates that the defense secretary has little interest in staying on under a succesor to President Bush:

When the next president takes the oath on Jan. 20, 2009, Gates will be just 65 years old, but he insists he will retire from public life, this time for good. A friend recently gave him an electronic key chain, inscribed "The Gates Countdown," with a small screen reading out how many days remain till the end of the term. He carries it everywhere, in part as a joke but not entirely. Told that those screens can be reset, he replied, "Not this one." When I mentioned that some lawmakers would like him to stay on in the next administration, he replied, "I am very wary of saying, 'Never,'" but added, "The circumstances under which I would do that are inconceivable to me."

That sounds pretty uniquivocal.

I'm not sure about John McCain, but it looks like the Democratic candidates have no interest in keeping Gates around, despite the widespread respect for Gates in establishment Washington. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama went out of their way to condemn Gates today for his call for a "pause" in troop reductions in Iraq. That doesn't necessarily rule Gates out entirely, but it sure suggest that speculation about his continuation in office is more Georgetown parlor game than reality.