If today's nuclear test in North Korea is confirmed, it could portend a nightmarish global scenario. The rogue nation could sell its nuclear technology, highly enriched uranium, or even an actual device to a terrorist group. I just asked one of Washington’s foremost North Korea experts, Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics, if we could be sure Kim Jong-Il would not do a deal with al Qaeda. His reply: "I wouldn't bet Chicago on it." Another keen observer of the Hermit Kingdom pointed out that permanently cash-strapped North Korea, "sells anything to anyone." A more likely scenario is that North Korea would do a trade with a fellow rogue regime, especially if that country has oil. Noland points out that historically, Iran and Syria have had close trade relations with Kim Jong-Il. In short, the effects of this test are going to be felt far outside the Korean Peninsula. The test will also inject urgency into the Japanese debate about revising its constitution and whether Japan itself should go nuclear. One short term compromise being floated is that Japan might invite the United States to base short-range nuclear missiles in Japan.

Expect Washington to expend a lot of energy reassuring Tokyo that the United States will defend Japan. Apparently, Bolton told the UN Security Council this morning that any attack on Japan or South Korea would be treated as an attack on the United States.