Joshua Keating's blog

Weekend open thread

Fri, 05/16/2008 - 6:07pm

Have a great weekend everyone. Here's an open-thread question for you: In light of this week's uproar over Bush's Knesset speech, will Barack Obama's stated willingness to negotiate with hostile regimes be an electoral liability, or an advantage?


The End of References and the Last Cliché

Fri, 05/16/2008 - 5:09pm

ERIC FEFERBERG/AFP/Getty Images

About halfway through a mostly fascinating piece on McCain's foreign policy in this weekend's New York Times Magazine, author Matt Bai goes into a fairly unnecessary analysis of Francis Fukuyama's seminal article, The End of History and the Last Man. The reference caught my eye because just two days ago, I attended a mostly fascinating discussion here at Carnegie between senior associate Robert Kagan and Times columnist David Brooks on Kagan's new book The Return of History and the End of Dreams, whose very title is a reference to Fukuyama's often-mocked, 19-year-old National Interest piece. Both Kagan and Bai are talented, original writers, which made me wonder: Why does it seem as thought every big-think piece on the last two decades of foreign policy must include at least one instance where the author trots out Fukuyama just to kick him in the teeth? Is there really no other way to describe early-90s, capitalist triumphalism than using this one phrase?

But "The End of History" is hardly alone. There are a number of convenient phrases and quotes that seem to pop up again and again as convenient shorthand for writers discussing big, complex foreign policy ideas. It's for this very reason that FP has a blanket ban on article submissions begining "Since the end of the cold war..." or "In the wake of Sept. 11..." 

Here, in no particular order, are five of the most clichéd foreign policy quotations and references that journalists and academics love to abuse:

Winston Churchill: "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

Also, any use of matrioshka dolls as a metaphor.

The Marshall Plan: As in, "A new Marshall plan for..."

My boss, Moisés Naím, has already skewered this one nicely.

Carl von Clausewitz: "War is a continuation of politics by other means."

Using this line is a continuation of your word count by any means.

"Flat world"

At this point, Tom Friedman surely deserves some sort of lifetime achievement award for inventing overquoted catchphrases.

Napoleon Bonaparte: "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."

Journalist James Kynge got a whole book out of this tired line. (And yes, it was mostly fascinating.)

Can you think of some others? Have at it in the comments.

 

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Zimbabwe rolls out $500 million bill

Fri, 05/16/2008 - 10:39am

ALEXANDER JOE/AFP/Getty Images

With no apparent sense of their own absurdity, Zimbabwe's central bank has issued a new bill worth 500 million Zimbabwe dollars to ease cash shortages. This follows the Z$250 million bill (pictured) that they issued last week. Prices for goods now double every week as the country braces for a runoff in what has already been a bloody and controversial presidential election.

I'm a little suprised that President Robert Mugabe hasn't followed Hugo Chavez's lead and just chopped a few zeroes off the end, if only to save accountants some headaches.

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Who has been voted the world's top public intellectual?

Fri, 05/16/2008 - 10:20am

Voting has now closed on Foreign Policy and Prospect's reader poll to determine the world's top public intellectual. We'd like to thank all of you for voting in such unprecedented numbers, even if you just wrote in Stephen Colbert. You can check back on June 23 or pick up our July/August issue to learn the final results. No hints!

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Morning Brief: Devastation Returns

Fri, 05/16/2008 - 9:54am

Guang Niu/Getty Images

Top Stories

A powerful aftershock hit earthquake-devastated China. The total death toll is now expected to exceed 50,000.

Torrential rains are compounding cyclone damage in Burma.

Asia

Hu Jintao is visiting Sichuan province to personally inspect earthquake damage. In a rare move, the Chinese government is inviting international aid.

Several cholera cases have been confirmed in Burma.

Indian police suspect a Bangladeshi militant group in the investigation of Tuesday's terrorist attack in Jaipur.

Pakistan appears to have no interest in stopping militants from crossing into Afghanistan.

Afghanistan may be on the brink of food riots.

Middle East

Osama bin Laden issued an audio tape in honor of Israel's 60th anniversary, vowing to wipe the Jewish state off the map.

A suicide bombing killed 20 at a funeral west of Baghdad.

President Bush was warmly received as Israel's Knesset, but his speech has generated some controversy.

U.S. Politics

Congressional Democrats blocked a $162.5 billion war funding bill.

California's supreme court ruled that gay couples have the right to marry. The historic ruling could become a campaign issue in November.

Barack Obama has fired back at what he calls a "false political attack" in Bush's Knesset speech.

Africa

A massive oil pipeline explosion tore through a heavily populated area in Lagos, Nigeria.

Zimbabwe has set June 27 as the date for its runoff election between President Robert Mugabe and challenger Morgan Tsvangirai.

Women are key to Rwanda's economic revival.

Europe

French civil servants staged a nationwide strike to protest public sector job cuts.

Russia has accused Georgia of aiding rebel groups in the North Caucasus.

The last members of the Russian doomsday cult have left their cave.

South America

Leaders of 50 European and Latin American countries are meeting in Peru to discuss global food prices.

The captured files linking Colombian Farc rebels to Venezuela appear to be real.

Today's Agenda

  • Rival Lebanese leaders will head to Qatar for peace talks.
  • Bush will meet with the king of Saudi Arabia.
  • Ukraine joins the world trade organization.
  • The Dominican Republic holds presidential elections.

Yesterday on Passport

 

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Bush plays the Nazi card at the Knesset

Thu, 05/15/2008 - 3:46pm

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

President Bush's Knesset speech is getting a lot of attention today for what appeared to be a veiled swipe at Barack Obama, implying that those who suggest negotiations with Iran are repeating the mistakes made during the lead-up to World War II:

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: 'Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.' We have an obligation to call this what it is - the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.''

Leaving aside whether the remark was aimed at Obama, (and Obama certainly thinks it was) is it really necessary for politicians to constantly invoke the Holocaust when speaking about international affairs with Jewish audiences, as if that's the only analogy through which they can understand security threats? For the record, some Israeli politicians are just as guilty of this. 

Anyway, Bush may claim to be horrified at the idea of negotiating with terrorist-supporting regimes, but his administration actually appears to have dropped its opposition to once-taboo negotiations between Israel and Syria in recent weeks. This would seem to support the view that Bush's remarks had more to do with U.S. politics than the reality of Israel's security.

Laura Rozen has much more on Bush's last chance to advance the peace process in her FP web-exclusive this week and today's photo essay explores Israel and Syria's continuing conflict over the Golan Heights.


News sentence of the day

Thu, 05/15/2008 - 2:06pm

iStockPhoto.com

Even so, [Noah's ark] would struggle to comply with modern marine transport guidelines, even with a few thousand creatures.

That's from a very weird Reuters story that uses the upcoming U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity as a peg to discuss whether or not the Noah's ark story really happened. Biologists, environmentalists, creationists, shipbuilders, and "livestock shipping experts" all weigh in.

By the way, if you're ever in the greater Cincinnati area, I highly recommend a visit to Answers in Genesis' infamous Creation Museum. In addition to learning just how all those animals did fit on the ark, you can also see some pretty scary animatronic dinosaurs in the full-scale Garden of Eden replica.

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McCain's dictator problem

Thu, 05/15/2008 - 12:09pm

Craig Mitchelldyer/Getty Images

Yesterday, John McCain's campaign announced that the candidate's wife Cindy has sold off $2 million she held in mutual funds that include Sudanese businesses. The Wall Street Journal also reported that McCain shares a consulting firm with the Vladimir Putin-backed Party of the Regions in Ukraine.

This follows last weekend's firing of McCain's mid-Atlantic regional manager and convention CEO when it was revealed that they had lobbied for the Burmese government in Washington. McCain, who fancies himself the scourge of totalitarian regimes worldwide, has now vowed to do a more thorough job vetting his campaign hirings.

To be fair, there's no evidence that his wife's investments or his advisors' lobbying ties have in any way influenced McCain's stances on these countries. Indeed, McCain has always been an outspoken supporter of Ukraine's Orange Revolution and has called for international action against the "thugs" in the Burmese junta. But this has been an election where candidates have been judged by their associations (see: Wright, Jeremiah) as much or more than by their positions, statements, and political record. So McCain's new caution about who gets a seat on the straight-talk express is probably a smart move.

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Brain drain

Thu, 05/15/2008 - 11:00am

The site still seems to be crawling today with the onslaught of visitors to the top public intellectuals poll, but we're still working on getting things back up to speed. Incidentally, today is your last chance to vote for the thinkers that you believe most shape the tenor of our times. The poll closes tonight so if you haven't settled on your top five yet, you may want to get on that.

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Morning Brief: Aftershock

Thu, 05/15/2008 - 9:06am

China Photos/Getty Images

China's Earthquake

Xinhua has warned that the death toll could reach 50,000. 

The high number of children killed in school collapses have caused outrage.

Communist party propaganda officials are working to manage public opinion.

Taiwan is donating heavily toward earthquake aid on the mainland.

Asia

Burma's regime announced favorable results from Saturday's constitutional referendum as the U.S. and EU continue to pressure it to allow in more cyclone aid. Many victims say they prefer living in ruins to the government's refugee camps.

A suicide bomber disguised in a Burqa killed 18 in Western Afghanistan.

An obscure Islamist group claimed responsibility for Tuesday's bombings in Jaipur, India.

A U.S. drone fired missiles at suspected militants in northern Pakistan.

2008 U.S. Election

Ending weeks of speculation, former rival John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama.

John McCain has pledged that most American troops will be out of Iraq by 2013 if he is elected.

John McCain's wife Cindy sold off $2 million worth of investments in mutual funds that include businesses in Sudan.

The loss of a congressional seat in Mississippi has Republicans worried about this November.

Middle East

Sectarian violence continues unchecked in Baghdad's Sadr City.

Palestinians commemorated the "catastrophe" of Israel's founding.

President Bush praised Israel as a model of democracy.

Latin America

Hugo Chavez's government offered to buy missiles for Colombian rebels, captured documents show.

Rising global corn and fuel prices will likely lead to a jump in Mexican tortilla prices in the coming months.

Evo Morales isn't sweating this summer's recall elections.

Africa

Violence in Southern Sudan has caused the U.N. to withdraw some staff.

Zimbabwe's government has pushed the date of their runoff election back to July 31.

Europe

Italy arrested hundreds of illegal immigrants in a nationwide sweep.

In Italy's rendition trial, the judge ruled that PM Silvio Berlusconi could be called to testify.

France's biggest retail bank, Credit Agricole, reported 66 percent losses. The subprime crisis is to blame.

Today's Agenda

  • President Bush will address Israel's Knesset
  • Arab league mediators will wrap up talks in Lebanon.

Yesterday on Passport

 

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Estonia will host NATO cybercommand

Wed, 05/14/2008 - 4:41pm

Seven NATO states have signed on to support a new cyber-defense facility in Tallinn, Estonia. Estonia, nicknamed E-stonia, is one of the most wired countries in the world and has good reason to be concerned about a cyberterrorism. Last year, a massive botnet attack launched from inside Russia crippled the country's infrastructure for days after the government controversially took down a Soviet-era monument.

No word yet on whether "the Vetted" are involved in this new venture.


Delays on the Internets

Wed, 05/14/2008 - 3:48pm

As you may have noticed, we're currently experiencing periodic delays and site outages. We believe this is due to an enormous upsurge in traffic to the Top Public Intellectuals list. We're working on addressing the problem and should have things running normally again soon.

Thanks for your patience.


Chinese dams starting to crack

Wed, 05/14/2008 - 12:24pm

This is disturbing news. Chinese officials are now warning that earthquake-damaged dams in Sichuan province may be strained to the breaking point:

Two hydropower stations in Maoxian county, where 7,000 residents and tourists remain stranded near the epicenter, were "seriously damaged". Authorities warned that dams could burst. Landslides had blocked the flow of two rivers in northern Qingchuan county, forming a huge lake in a region where 1,000 have already died and 700 are buried, Xinhua said.

Luckily, the massive Three Gorges Dam appears to have been unaffected.

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Giuliani enters the political ring in Ukraine

Wed, 05/14/2008 - 12:12pm

Amy Sussman/Getty Images

You may have been wondering what Rudy Giuliani has been up to since the ignominious end of his presidential campaign. It turns out that "America's mayor" is getting back into urban politics...in Ukraine.

Giuliani was in Kiev on Tuesday, speaking with former world heavyweight boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko, who is running for mayor. Giuliani has signed on as an advisor to Klitschko's campaign. At yesterday's press conference he offered this advice:

"If Vitaly is elected mayor of Kiev, my first piece of advice for him would be to say ... no more corruption, corruption is over."

Klitschko is one of the front runners in a wild election that has drawn 79 candidates, but the ex-boxer known as Dr. Iron Fist has been mocked by his opponents for his perceived lack of intelligence and poor command of Ukrainian. (Like many Ukrainians, he grew up speaking Russian.) The former champ, who actually has a doctorate in physical education, seems to be longing for the simplicity of his sport:

"Sometimes I wish I could meet people inside the ring, where there are clear rules," said Klitschko, who has 34 career knockouts and literally towers over the political field at 6-foot-7 (2 meters). "But physical power decides nothing in politics."

Indeed, in addition to running for mayor Klitschko is training for a shot at retaking his title this summer, two goals that might seem contradictory.

But Giuliani seems confident in his new protege and sees parallels between Klitschko's rise and another slow-talking muscleman turned transformational leader, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Kiev's squeegee-men better watch out.

 


Morning Brief: Clinton keeps on keeping on

Wed, 05/14/2008 - 8:48am

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Top Story

As expected, Hillary Clinton won big in West Virginia's presidential primary, beating Barack Obama by a margin of two to one. Obama maintained his lead in overall delegates.

Asia

Fifty thousand Chinese troops have been deployed to Sichuan province to help those affected by Monday's earthquake.

Burmese police are blocking aid workers from helping cyclone victims.

Sixty people were killed in bombings in the Western Indian city of Jaipur.

North Korea has handed over details of its nuclear program to the U.S.

Middle East

George Bush arrived in Israel to take part in the country 60th anniversary celebrations.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert says he has found "understandings and points of agreement" with Palestinian Mahmoud Abbas.

The Arab league has sent mediators to Lebanon.

Africa

A ship owned by U.S. oil company Chevron has been hijacked on the Niger delta.

A UN delegation has arrived in Burundi to facilitate a truce between the government and rebels.

Former Liberian leader Charles Taylor's vice president testified at his war crimes trial.

Latin America

Colombia extradited 14 former paramilitary leaders for trial in the U.S. on drug trafficking charges.

Mexico's police are fighting back after the assasination of high ranking officers by drug cartels

Brazil's environment minister has resigned, possibly in protest over development in the Amazon.

Europe

A car bomb exploded in Spain's Basque country, destroying a police barracks.

Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi may be questioned by prosecutors about his role in CIA renditions.

Space aliens have been visiting the UK for decades.

 

Today's Agenda

  • President Bush meets with Ehud Olmert
  • The Cannes film festival begins

Yesterday on Passport

 

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Moving the process along

Tue, 05/13/2008 - 5:04pm
Uriel Sinai/Getty Images

Speaking in Jerusalem today, George Bush was uncharacteristically modest about his expectations for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process during the rest of his term:

"I'm not running for the Nobel Peace Prize. I'm just trying to be a guy to use the influence of the United States to move the process along," Bush said.

Being that guy may force a president desperate for a foreign policy victory to back away from one of his administration's central stated principles: the refusal to negotiate with regimes hostile to the U.S. and Israel. In a new web-exclusive argument for FP, journalist Laura Rozen explores the possibility of Bush overhauling his diplomatic posture in the Middle East this late in the game:

Though the Bush administration seems unlikely to do a “Nixon goes to China” with Iran at this late date, in some isolated cases it does appear to be at least flirting with a different approach. Recent weeks have seen numerous reports of indirect proximity talks and back-channel diplomacy between Israel and Syria, on the one hand, and between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas, on the other. In both cases, Washington’s role is curious, officially condemning calls for any sort of dialogue with Hamas while at the same time, seemingly tacitly endorsing Egypt’s role as a cease-fire broker between Israel and Hamas.

 Read the full piece here.


Burmese generals caught in the act

Tue, 05/13/2008 - 3:18pm

It's getting harder for the Burmese state to hide the truly profound level of its own dysfunction:

The Burmese generals were visible all right. State television showed them handing out boxes of the small amount of aid allowed in from neighbouring Thailand. Unwittingly, it also showed that the Burmese leadership had plastered their own names over the true origins of the food aid to fool their own people into believing that the emergency relief supplies had come from them.

You know things are bad when a military dictatorship can't even get its own propaganda right.

(Hat tip: Reason's Kerry Howley)

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More calls to aid Burma by any means necessary

Tue, 05/13/2008 - 1:14pm

Invoking the United Nations' "Responsibility to Protect" clause, the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana joined French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in calling for the international community to aid the population of Burma, even without the consent of their government.

"We have to use all the means to help those people," Javier Solana said before an emergency meeting of EU ministers in Brussels. "The United Nations charter opens some avenues if things cannot be resolved in order to get the humanitarian aid to arrive."

China's veto pretty much precludes a Security Council resolution which is why some, like journalist (and top public intellectual) Anne Applebaum are calling for a new "coalition of the willing" to deliver aid without the junta's cooperation. Applebaum acknowledges that the phrase has been "tainted forever" by its association with the war in Iraq, but she isn't the only one drawing that parrallel. The Christian Science Monitor quoted one Burmese merchant who wondered why his country didn't meet the criteria for humanitarian intervention:

"I want to talk to Mr. George Bush. What are you doing? United Nations, what are you doing? We have no food, no water. This is the worst government in the world. Same as Saddam Hussein. Why you cannot help us?"


Extreme ping pong diplomacy

Tue, 05/13/2008 - 10:52am

Apparently, Chinese President Hu Jintao totally dominates at the ping pong table and put on quite a show while visiting Japan last week.


 

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No musical chairs at the Kremlin

Tue, 05/13/2008 - 10:45am
VLADIMIR RODIONOV/AFP/Getty Images

An interesting bit of political theater from Moscow:

When Putin came to his old office in the Kremlin on Monday to propose the names of ministers for his government, the former president made for his customary seat on the left of the desk.

"But he paused before sitting down and told President Medvedev: "Now this is your place," Russia's Kommersant daily reported.

"Oh, what's the difference?" Medvedev answered and immediately sat on the right of the desk, where Putin's guests traditionally perched for the eight years of his presidency.

Get the message?

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