Santorum's big night
It ain't over yet. Rick Santorum pulled off an unlikely hat-trick on Tuesday night, winning caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado as well as a non-binding primary in Missouri -- a troubling development for frontrunner Mitt Romney, who received lower vote totals in all three states than he did in 2008.
"I don't stand here and claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.... I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama," Santorum said in a speech to supporters in St. Louis. Once seen as the presumptive challenger to Romney, Newt Gingrich wasn't even on the ballot in Missouri and had disappointing third and fourth-place finishes in the other contests. His campaign is now focused on the Super Tuesday contests on March 6, which will award more than 400 delegates.
Santorum's surprising success is likely to focus more media scrutiny on his foreign-policy views, which have so far received less attention than his socially conservative domestic policies. In particular, Santorum has a long record of hawkish views on Iran and Islam. 

Women in combat
The announcement this week that the Pentagon is easing some restrictions on women in combat is already resonating in the campaign. Santorum expressed concerns about the policy change this week, telling NBC's Ann Curry, "When you have men and women together in combat, I think men have emotions when you see a woman in harm's way.... I think it's something that's natural that's very much in our culture to be protective. That was my concern, and I think that's a concern with all the military.''
Polls, however, show strong support -- even among those describing themselves as "very conservative" -- for allowing women to serve in combat roles.

Release the Bachmann
The Conservative Political Action Conference is meeting this week in Washington, D.C. and while there is reportedly little enthusiasm for Romney's candidacy at the event, former candidate Michele Bachmann fired up the crowd with a withering assault on Barack Obama's foreign-policy record. "After a decade of sacrifice to defeat global jihad, Obama has chosen to hand Iraq to Iran," Bachmann said. "Before Obama was elected, no one had ever heard a United States president say to the world that we are anything but an exceptional nation," she continued. "And before President Obama was elected, we never had a president go around apologizing to the world."
Romney will address CPAC on Friday in what's being seen as a critical opportunity to defend his conservative credentials.

Romney readies
While he may be a long way from finishing off his Republican rivals, Romney is apparently already prepping for a foreign-policy debate with Obama. RealClearPolitics reports that for the past three weeks, the Romney campaign has been holding a weekly conference call with the more than 40 experts who are advising the campaign on foreign policy. Romney's campaign argues that despite Obama's generally high approval ratings on foreign affairs, he will be vulnerable on defense spending, tension with Israel, the "reset" policy with Russia, and his inability to halt the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Liberals learn to stop worrying and love drones and Gitmo
Obama may have fired up the base in 2008 by attacking the Bush administration's harsh counterterrorism policies, but with a Democrat in office, these same voters seem to be becoming more comfortable with the war on terror. A new CBS-Washington Post poll finds that 70 percent of voters -- including 53 percent of self-identified liberal democrats -- approve of keeping the detention center at Guantanamo Bay open. Obama signed an executive order closing the prison in the first week of his presidency, but that promise has now been largely abandoned in the face of strong congressional opposition. The poll also found that 77 percent of liberal democrats support drone strikes against suspected terrorists and a majority also support the use of drones U.S. citizens who are suspected of terrorism overseas.

What to watch for
Maine will announce the results of its week-long caucuses on Saturday. The independent-leaning northeast state may be Ron Paul's best chance for a win, as neither Gingrich nor Santorum have campaigned in the low-turnout contest.

On the Election Channel
Uri Friedman reads Santorum's 40+ op-eds on Iran so you don't have to.
Charles Kupchan says Romney should get real and admit it's not going to be an American century. Shadow Government's Will Inboden counters.
David Hoffman lists 5 pressing national security threats that haven't been mentioned in the campaign.
Scott Clement, from the Washington Post's Behind the Numbers team, finds little voter support for a U.S. intervention in Syria.
Joshua E. Keating profiles America's weirdest Super PAC.

Guess it's a slow day in Jackson: 

Mississippi State Rep. Steve Holland, a Democrat, has introduced a bill calling for the part of the Gulf of Mexico that is bordered by Mississippi to be renamed the “Gulf of America.”

The measure, known as HB 150 and introduced to the state House Marine Resources Committee, says the body of water will have its new name beginning July 1.

The bill doesn't give any reason for the change, but one Latino Republican group is proposing changing the name of the Mississippi River in retaliation. 

Also, nobody tell Holland, who probably decorates his office with "American carpets" and refers to his highest quality dishware as "the good America," but arguing over Gulf nomenclature is a longtime Middle Eastern preoccupation.

HT: Nick Miroff

On Monday, we disussed Ruth Bader Ginsburg's now-controversial interview with an Egyptian television station in which she suggested that the U.S. Constitution may not be the best guide for a country writing its own founding document in the 21st century and suggested that the South African constitution, which includes both more enumerated rights and "positive" rights -- such as healthcare and economic equality -- might be a better fit. 

It turns out this may be an increasingly popular view. The New York Times' Adam Liptak summarizes a recent study which found that fewer democracies have looked to the U.S. Constitution as a model in recent years:

In 1987, on the Constitution’s bicentennial, Time magazine calculated that “of the 170 countries that exist today, more than 160 have written charters modeled directly or indirectly on the U.S. version.”

A quarter-century later, the picture looks very different. “The U.S. Constitution appears to be losing its appeal as a model for constitutional drafters elsewhere,” according to a new study by David S. Law of Washington University in St. Louis and Mila Versteeg of the University of Virginia.

[...]

“Among the world’s democracies,” Professors Law and Versteeg concluded, “constitutional similarity to the United States has clearly gone into free fall. Over the 1960s and 1970s, democratic constitutions as a whole became more similar to the U.S. Constitution, only to reverse course in the 1980s and 1990s.”

“The turn of the twenty-first century, however, saw the beginning of a steep plunge that continues through the most recent years for which we have data, to the point that the constitutions of the world’s democracies are, on average, less similar to the U.S. Constitution now than they were at the end of World War II.”

There are lots of possible reasons. The United States Constitution is terse and old, and it guarantees relatively few rights. The commitment of some members of the Supreme Court to interpreting the Constitution according to its original meaning in the 18th century may send the signal that it is of little current use to, say, a new African nation. And the Constitution’s waning influence may be part of a general decline in American power and prestige.

I'm not sure I buy that this is a sign of declining American power. Rather, it seems more like adaptation over time. The most controversial legal battles of American history have involved the interpretation of non-specific language in the constitution -- whether the bill of rights implies a right to privacy, whether the first amendment mandates a complete seperation of church and state, whether firearms laws are prohibited by the second amendment.

If the U.S. were writing a new constitution today, it would likely address these issues in more specificity, and make reference to a number of modern. political issues that weren't concerns in the 18th century. It shouldn't be a surprise that new democracies are attempting a bit more specifity and modernity in their documents. (There is a danger in too much specificity, as the EU's unwieldy, 219-page monstrosity attests.)

The New Yorker's Hendrik Hertzberg is skeptical about the study, but actually makes a stronger case that U.S.-style constitutions have gone out of favor.

The problem is that the study focusses almost exclusively on rights—the individual and civil rights that are specified in written constitutions. But it almost totally ignores structures—the mundane mechanisms of governing, the nuts and bolts, which is mainly what constitutions, written and unwritten, are about, and which determine not only whether rights are truly guaranteed but also whether a government can truly function in accordance with democratic norms. Or function at all with any semblance of efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability.

Even in terms of structure, the U.S. model isn't particularly popular. A U.S.-style chief executive is a popular feature among Latin American governments, but over the years this has proven problematic by facilitating the rise of autocratic caudillos. Far more popular today are "parliamentary systems with some form of proportional representation."

But again, this isn't really a new phenomenon -- there hasn't been a new democracy with an American-style presidential system for over a century so it's hard to attribue it to a loss of prestige. 

Hat tip: Daily Dish

Rioting has erupted in the tiny Indian Ocean island nation after a confusing sequence of events that saw President Mohamed Nasheed resign, then claim a day later that he had been forced from office. Police have now issued a warrant for Nasheed's arrest:

Nasheed had announced he was voluntarily resigning Tuesday after months of protests against his rule and fading support from the police and the army. But the next day, as former Vice President Mohammed Waheed Hassan was forming a new government, Nasheed suddenly announced he had actually been pushed from power at gunpoint.

Thousands of his supporters swept into the streets. They clashed with security forces in Male, the capital, and attacked police stations in remote parts of this 1,200-island archipelago nation off southern India. The new government insists there was no coup.

The dispute threatens the crucial tourism industry of this mostly Muslim nation of 300,000 people, which relies on dozens of high-end resorts that cater to the rich and famous. The developments also raise questions about the future of a democracy that only shed a 30-year, one-man rule with the 2008 multiparty elections that brought Nasheed to power.

Nasheed first came to prominence as a human rights campaigner under the rule of the Maldives former leader, the dictatorial Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. He's best known internationally for his environmental activism, particularly his well-publicized stunt of holding a cabinet meeting underwater to raise awareness of the dangers rising sea levels pose to small island nations like the Maldives. But it's been a rough year for his presidency: 

Over the past year, Nasheed was battered by protests over soaring prices and demands for more religiously conservative policies. Last month, Nasheed's government arrested the nation's top criminal court judge for freeing a government critic and refused to release him as protests grew.

Nasheed's supporters have blamed both military factions tied to Gayoom and Islamist extremists for his ouster. The departed president now believes he will soon be arrested, as he was 27 times under Gayoom's rule. 

Coups are an increasingly rare phenomenon in global politics, and when they do occur, those who take power have been increasingly willing to give it up -- thanks largely to changing international attitudes toward coups in the post-Cold War era. This case is complicated by the fact that it initially appeared that Nasheed had left voluntarily, and even now the facts aren't quite clear. Initially, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon appeared to give tacit approval to the transfer of power, but that could change if it appears that Nasheed was, in fact, forced from power.      

Nasheed was interviewed by FP's Charles Homans about his environmental activism in Dec. 2010. 

In a move straight out of Kafka, Russian police are taking the unusual step of filing new tax evasion charges against lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who died in their custody two years ago:

The trial of the defendant, Sergei L. Magnitsky, would be the first posthumous prosecution in Russian legal history, according to a statement by the former employer, Hermitage Capital.

The death of Mr. Magnitsky, a lawyer, in November 2009 drew international criticism over Russia’s human rights record, especially after accusations arose that he had been denied proper medical care. The State Department has barred officials linked to Mr. Magnitsky’s prosecutions from entering the United States. Parliaments in nine European countries are considering similar bans.

Police officials reopened the case against Mr. Magnitsky last summer, saying it would provide a chance for relatives and supporters to clear his name.

Relatives, though, said they had not asked for that, and executives at Hermitage said the motive was something else entirely: to vindicate the officials Mr. Magnitsky had accused of corruption.

Magnitsky's original arrest on charges of tax evasion came shortly after he testified against two interior ministry officials, accusing them of embezzelement. See his business partner Jamison Firestone's piece from last year for more background on the case. Hermitage CEO William Browder also wrote about Magnitsky shortly after his death in 2009.  

Does anyone know of a precedent anywhere in the world for a posthumous prosecution? According to Hermitage, it's never been done in Russia, even during the Soviet period. Even Adolph Hitler wasn't posthumously prosecuted, though there was some discussion of the idea at Nuremburg. Oliver Cromwell was posthumously executed in 1661, three years after his death, but I can't come up with any examples in modern times --particularly not for a crime like tax evasion.

The Russian justice system appears to have outdone itself. 

50 years ago this week, President John F. Kennedy signed an executive order embargoing all trade with Fidel Castro's Cuba: 

Whereas the Eighth Meeting of Consultation of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Serving as Organ of Consultation in Application of the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, in its Final Act resolved that the present Government of Cuba is incompatible with the principles and objectives of the Inter-American system; and, in light of the subversive offensive of Sino-Soviet Communism with which the Government of Cuba is publicly aligned, urged the member states to take those steps that they may consider appropriate for their individual and collective self-defense;

Whereas the Congress of the United States, in section 620(a) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (75 Stat. 445), as amended, has authorized the President to establish and maintain an embargo upon all trade between the United States and Cuba; and

Whereas the United States, in accordance with its international obligations, is prepared to take all necessary actions to promote national and hemispheric security by isolating the present Government of Cuba and thereby reducing the threat posed by its alignment with the communist powers:

Now, Therefore, I, John F. Kennedy, President of the United States of America, acting under the authority of section 620(a) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (75 Stat. 445), as amended, do

1. Hereby proclaim an embargo upon trade between the United States and Cuba in accordance with paragraphs 2 and 3 of this proclamation.

2. Hereby prohibit, effective 12:01 A.M., Eastern Standard Time, February 7, 1962, the importation into the United States of all goods of Cuban origin and all goods imported from or through Cuba; and I hereby authorize and direct the Secretary of the Treasury to carry out such prohibition, to make such exceptions thereto, by license or otherwise, as he determines to be consistent with the effective operation of the embargo hereby proclaimed, and to promulgate such rules and regulations as may be necessary to perform such functions.

3. AND FURTHER, I do hereby direct the Secretary of Commerce, under the provisions of the Export Control Act of 1949, as amended (50 U.S.C. App. 2021-2032), to continue to carry out the prohibition of all exports from the United States to Cuba, and I hereby authorize him, under that Act, to continue, make, modify, or revoke exceptions from such prohibition.

In Witness Whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States of America to be affixed.

DONE at the City of Washington this third day of February, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and sixty-two, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and eighty-sixth.

JOHN F. KENNEDY

By the President:
Dean Rusk,
Secretary of State

The order went into effect on Feb. 7. Since that day, there have been ten U.S. presidents, five of whom are now deceased. The Sino-Soviet Communism mentioned in the order has ceased to exist. The embargo has been overwhelmingly condemned in the United Nations for 20 straight years -- the last time it came up for a vote, only Israel supported the U.S. position, with Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands abstaining. Cuba has never been classified as anything but "not free" on Freedom House's "Freedom in the World" rankings. In the past 50 years, the U.S. has conducted trade with countries including China, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Saudi Arabia, Chad, and Belarus. 

Though the Obama administration has officially extended the embargo each year, there have been some small changes including easing travel and investment restrictions. The administration is clearly not all that enthusiastic about the policy, with one administration official telling CBS in 2009, "I think if you're arguing for consistency, it's something that we strive for but don't always reach. And that's obviously the case."

With support for the embargo falling, even among Cuban-Americans, it's tempting to wonder if a second-term Obama might take action to end the policy. But as long as the Castro brothers are alive, there doesn't really seem to be much of a political upside to lifting the Kennedy-era embargo. Assuming at least one of the brothers is still alive, I'd be very suprised if an 11th president doesn't inherit the embargo, whether in 2012 or 2016. 

Via China Digital Times, Shanghai Daily reports that fears about debris from a destroyed Russian Mars probe forced the temporary shutdown of two Shanghai airports last month: 

SOME 17 flights were told to defer landing at Shanghai's two airports late last month out of fear that debris from Russia's failed Mars probe might fall to the city, the civil aviation regulator of East China said yesterday.

The regulators asked the planes to circle around Pudong and Hongqiao international airports about 1am on January 16 after being informed that some pieces of the probe might be dropping to the city, said the East China Regional Administration under Civil Aviation Administration of China.

The Phobos-Grunt Mars probe crashed into the South Pacific about 1,250 kilometers west of Chile, though some reports suggested debris may have allen over a wider area, including parts of Brazilian territory. Russia's space agency blamed a computer malfunction caused by cosmic rays.

Der Spiegel also recently reported that a 20-year-old German research satellite narrowly missed hitting Beijing last October -- though "narrowly" seems like a somewhat relative term when you're talking about distances of over 2,000 miles. NASA's 12,500-pound UARS crashed over the Pacific in September. 

Thankfully, due to either navigation technology or probabilities, satellites generally crash at sea, though landfalls aren't unheard of -- such as SkyLab's 1979 crash in the town of Esperance in Western Australia. It seems like only a matter of time before this results in a major international incident. 

It's a somewhat less ambitious project than fending the 1,951 mile U.S.-Mexico border, but not necessarily less controversial. EU Observer reports:

Greece has started construction of a 12.6-km-long razor-wire-topped fence designed to keep out migrants but described as "pointless" by the European Commission.

The fence, costing an estimated €5.5 million, is being built in the Evros region on the Greek-Turkish border where the vast majority of irregular migrants try to cross into the EU. It is to be completed in September.

The European Commission on Tuesday (7 February) said the fence is a national issue. But it also poured scorn on the project. "Fences and walls are short-term solutions to measures that do not solve the problem. The EU is not and will not co-finance this fence ... It is pointless," a spokesman for home affairs commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told press in Brussels.

Just one day earlier, Christos Papoustis, a former European commissioner and currently Greece's minister for citizen protection had said the fence has both "practical and symbolic value."

The Greek-Turkish border is for the most part a 180-kilometre-long river patrolled in part by Frontex, the EU's Warsaw-based border control agency. Near the city of Orestiada, the river loops east and runs for about 12 kilometres on the Turkish side, with the Greek-Turkish land border located in this loop.

The fence may not be the best of the near-bankrupt Greek state's resources at the moment, but the country does have an understandable gripe about the EU's so-called Dublin regulation, which holds point-of-entry countries -- mostly on Europe's periphery -- responsible for handling asylum cases. Under the law, other countries deport asylum-seekers back to their country-of-entry for processing.