After several months of opposition protests, now, Madagascar president Marc Ravalomanana has been forced to camp outside of the capital while tanks and gunmen break into his presidential compound. Opposition leader Andry Rajoelina has proclaimed himself leader, having appointed prime ministers and a cabinet. And he has called for the current president's arrest with the apparent support of at least part of the army.

Rajoelina claims all this is not a coup d'etat, but... can he suggest a better name?

Desperate to improve things, President Ravalomana offered to call an election over the weekend -- letting the voters decide who is really in change. Rajoelina, however, looks in no mood to negotiate. This wave of popular support is probably the best shot he has at power, and the opposition is keen to ride it to its fullest. African Union and United Nations calls for calm are falling on deaf ears.

What next? A worst case scenario will see a coup -- and one that promises to be bloody. On top of the 100 already killed in protests, more would certainly fall victim to the president's toppling. Ravalomanana supporters are gathering sticks and makeship weapons to defend his final stand outside the city.

The worse case could also see the exit of some of Madagascar's recent international investors -- mining companies and Korean giant Daewoo. Now is not the best time to be losing foreign cash, as developing countries are expected to see a $700 billion shortfall in the financial crisis. But somehow, I doubt all that is on Rajoelina's mind. He has a different kind of capital control to worry about. 

If you've been following the Chas Freeman saga, you'll certainly want to check out the former nominee's interview with The Nation's Robert Dreyfuss. In the interview, Freeman addresses the blistering e-mail message that The Cable's Laura Rozen featured on Tuesday:

 The only thing I regret is that in my statement I embraced the term ‘Israel lobby.' This isn't really a lobby by, for or about Israel. It's really, well, I've decided I'm going to call it from now on the [Avigdor] Lieberman lobby. It's the very right-wing Likud in Israel and its fanatic supporters here. And Avigdor Lieberman is really the guy that they really agree with. And I think they're doing Israel in.

Freeman also says he wasn't too surprised by the unproductive conversations he had on Capitol Hill:

Well, they didn't go badly. But I'm one guy talking to one or two people, and they're quite a number of people and they're feeding all sorts of disinformation in, and they have established channels and they also have clout. So there wasn't much hope on my part that I could get many people to stand up and support me, because the down side of doing that is so obvious. Because if you go against this group, they either curtail your contributions or they arrange to contribute to an opponent. So it's not realistic to expect courage on the Hill. And I didn't. 

Raul Castro made some big changes in a cabinet shake-up in yesterday. The Cuban president consolidated ministries, appointed loyalists, and sent some of Fidel's former confidants packing. The message seemed clear enough: I'm the Castro of the family now. Or, as Jaime Suchlicki, a Cuba expert at the University of Miami, told me, "Power is in the hands of Raul... Fidel is not relevant."

While the reorganization was likely a domestic calculation, there are
several points worth flagging for Cuba watchers beyond Havana's ports.

First, it is increasingly clear that the military -- Raul's closest ally -- will be the winner in his government. Top posts went to uniformed allies of the Cuban president, only adding to the stronghold grip that the military has over the economy, controlling over 60 percent. 

One department in the recent shake-up is telling: agriculture. High food prices and shortages have fueled discontent in recent months. So Castro has put food production squarely in military hands. Just six months ago, Raul Castro allowed peasants to borrow land from the government for cultivation -- a measure he hoped would spur both public and black market supplies. Now, he wants the military to bring even more "efficiency" to cultivation. "He wants to try to increase food production to calm down the Cuban people, who are upset," says Suchlicki.

Is the move one step further towards talks with the Obama Administration? Or perhaps a signal that Fidel's health continues to decline? I can't tell you the answers, but at least now we know who to ask: While Fidel strolls in the park, Raul is running the show. 

FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images

Last week, FP's Laura Rozen broke the story that former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman is the Obama administration's pick to head the National Intelligence Council, the internal think tank for the intelligence community responsible for producing National Intelligence Estimates.

Since Laura's story hit the Web, critics have been attacking the appointment over Freeman's views on Israel and ties to Saudi Arabia. Former AIPAC staffer (himself a pretty controversial guy) Steve Rosen, now of the Middle East Forum, is leading the charge against the appointment. Here's one controversial comment of Freeman's from a 2005 speech:

As long as the United States continues unconditionally to provide the subsidies and political protection that make the Israeli occupation and the high-handed and self-defeating policies it engenders possible, there is little, if any, reason to hope that anything resembling the former peace process can be resurrected. Israeli occupation and settlement of Arab lands is inherently violent.

He's also committed the unforgiveable sin of saying nice things about our colleague Steve Walt and publishing the original "Israel Lobby" article in his organization's journal.

There's also the fact that his organization, the Middle East Policy Council operates "thanks to the generosity of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia" (his own words) and that he's an advocate of improved U.S-Saudi relations.

The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg argues:

It would be inappropriate to appoint an official of AIPAC to run the National Intelligence Council (though it must be said that AIPAC doesn't receive any funding from the Israeli government) and it seems inappropriate to give the job to a Saudi sympathizer as well.

On the other hand, as Ben Smith notes:

Other appointees have worked for policy groups that accepted money from foreign governments -- though perhaps few as domestically unpopular as the Saudis. Ross, for one, is still listed as the chairman of the board of directors of the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, an Israeli government arm.

As General Zinni learned the hard way, no appointments are final until they are confirmed and the politics of this certainly don't bode well for Freeman. It would be a shame if he were spiked. Freeman's an experienced and highly qualified foreign-policy practitioner and one would hope that his critics can do a little better if they really hope to prove he's the agent of a foreign government. At the same time, one would also hope the Obama team anticipated the possible controversy and have good answers to some reasonable questions about Freeman's views and affiliations.

Want more Freeman? Check out this interview about the Taiwan Strait (he's also an old Asia hand who served as Richard Nixon's translator in China) that he gave to FP in 2007.

Photo: The Middle East Policy Council

Latvia has become the first of the countries on our "next Iceland" list to follow the Nordic nation into political collapse:

Latvia's four-party ruling coalition collapsed on Friday and the president called for talks to forge a new government to tackle a deepening economic crisis.

The coalition's fall, the second European government to succumb to the financial crisis, adds to the economic problems of the small Baltic state, which last year had to take a 7.5 billion euro ($9.43 billion) IMF-led rescue loan last year.

Political and social tensions exploded in January into a riot, though there has been little sign of a repeat in Latvia, a European Union and NATO member since 2004.

Latvia's president Valdis Zatlers will start work on forming a new government next week. Hopefully the country -- one of Eastern Europe's great success stories -- we soon be able to get back on track. At least the cattle mutiliation can stop now.

Hugo Chavez: destroyer of Venezuela or savior of the country's poorest? Whichever you believe, after Sunday, it's very possible that Chavez could be around to stay for another 10 or 20 years.

Venezuelans go to the polls Feb. 15 to vote on a referendum over whether to lift term limits for their president and other public officials. Chavez has called the referendum the crux of his self-titled bolivarian revolution. The opposition decries his increasing grip on power.

On the eve of the event, FP is featuring arguments from both sides. Check out Lucy Conger's take on how crashing oil prices could stop Venezuela's international ambitions in their tracks. Meanwhile, in an interview, two pro-Chavez legislators say that the fate of their country depends on Chavez. Off to the polls!

Photo: JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images

The latest perpetrator of hopejacking -- attempting to Obamafy one's image by claiming association with him or co-opting his message of change -- is Rahul Gandhi, general secretary of India's ruling Congress party and scion of India's Gandhi-Nehru political dynasty:

"I think we have millions of Barack Obamas in India," he said, about unleashing the powerful democratic spirit that lies within India's 1.2bn people.

"It is the question of channelling [their energy], giving them voice and power. The reason I am opening them up is that I fully intend to give power to them," he added.

The people-power sentiment is fine, if a little vacuous. But it's kind of rich coming from a politician whose father, grandmother, and great grandfather were all prime ministers. I guess citing Caroline Kennedy wouldn't be quite as inspiring.

Photo: PRAKASH SINGH/AFP/Getty Images

After Kenya's, Zimbabwe's and Nigeria's recent election mayhem, observers worried Ghana might fall into the same electoral dissaray. In the runup to the recent presidential vote, both major candidates claimed they were set for victory.

Initial polls in December left a tightly contested race -- with the two leading candidates within just one percent of each other. The governing party candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo and the opposition leader and former professor John Atta Mills bitterly contested the second round of elections. After being seperated by just 23,000 votes, Ghana's final constituency voted on Saturday and catupluted Mills to the presidency.

And thus Ghana avoided the election trap. The first African country to gain its independence in 1960 holds its reputation as a democracy where power has been transfered peacefully and often, with only minor incidents (like this one). The outgoing president didn't try to extend his term, and he urged a peaceful transition. Mills' opponent conceded gracefully and the incoming president promised to be a "president for all."

Good. But now, as many governments have learned the hard way, the more difficult part is yet to come, and Ghana finds itself in an unusually precarious (or promising) turning point.

Ghana is a commodity-dependent economy in a market reeling from bubble and burst. Gold, cocoa and timber make much of the country's GDP, and agriculture employs over half the population. The fall in commodity prices spells hope and disaster all at once; lucrative exports will suffer, as will farmers' bottom lines. But urban food prices -- once crushing for the average Ghanaian -- will come down from sky high.

And despite Ghana's healthy growth rate, the impoverished majority is hungry for prosperity to trickle down. Offshore oil -- found in the summer of 2007 -- once promised to pay for a host of new public services. Now, the sunken petrol price stop drilling before it even begins.

The incoming president seems to have a good head about the economic policies needed to move forward. But he'll need the world economy, the increasingly corrupt bureaucracy, and his country's belief in democracy to be on his side, as well.

Photo: PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images

For much of late 2007, Belgium looked like it was on the verge of being split in two as Flemish and Wallonian politicians struggled to form a government that would preserve national unity. At one point, erstwhile Prime Minister Yves Leterme even said that there was nothing holding the country together but "the king, the football team, some beers."

Now, Leterme has been forced to step down, along with his entire government, not because of nationalist sentiment, but because of an old-fashioned banking scandal. Leterme and his ministers are accused of applying undue pressure to push through a bargain-basement sale of Belgium's partially-nationalized bank Fortis to the French bank BNP Paribas, at the expense of Belgian workers and shareholders. King Albert is now struggling to find a prime minister who is both untainted by "Fortisgate" and capable of keeping the fragile Flemish-Walloon coalition intact. No easy task.

The financial crisis and government responses seem to be having interesting effects on nationalist sentiment in Europe. In Scotland, nationalist parties saw their cause set way back by the UK government's massive bailouts of Scottish banks, which made the idea of Scottish self-sufficiency look patently ridiculous. In Belgium, it seems like Flemish nationalists could be emboldened by the central government's failure and will likely continue to make the case that the poorer French-speaking Wallonia is a drag on the national economy. This could make keeping the place intact all the more challenging.

I'm sure you've heard plenty about the Rod Blagojevich corruption scandal by now. But did you know his father, Radisa Blagojevich, was a Serbian immigrant? Apparently, the story has been getting big play in the old country.

The Chicago Tribune reports that, if Internet comment sections are any indication, there isn't a lot of sympathy in Serbia for the Illinois governor.

But the Associated Press did manage to find some folks who thinks the whole thing is an American plot. "He must have been framed, it's all politics," Rod's (supposed) cousin Dragan told Blic, a Serbian tabloid, in a story that ran under the headline "The Governor Defying Entire America." The AP adds:

Cousin Dragan appeared again in Friday's Blic, saying his famous relative still owns some land in the village so "he can come to Serbia if he cannot take it any more in America."

"He can have a cow or a pig or two, a chicken. ... He is always welcome."

Photo: Brian Kersey/Getty Images News

Binyavanga Wainaina has written a viciously funny step-by-step "guide" for aspiring African dictators in South Africa's Mail & Guardian. Some of the highlights:

Rule 3. Make America or China happy. Make Israel and Saudi Arabia very happy. Become a Muslim, like Idi Amin. Visit Moammar Gadaffi often. He likes African leaders. We do not know why. Pray with George Bush and let him see your soul. Make your country's leading supermodel the ambassador to France and Italy. Ask her to wear a mini when presenting her papers to Nicholas Sarkozy...

Rule 6. Colonial countries expected little of Africans. Maintain this illusion...

Rule 10. A free press is important. But have shares in all major media and make sure that you allow them to be very critical of everything, except you. You can, these days, secretly pay bloggers. They can say, for example, that your economic policy is Keynesian, but they should never say you are a "corrupt Zulu warlord"...

If all these things fail and you find yourself in State House surrounded by screaming citizens carrying homemade weaponry, make sure you have a Hummer (Raila Odinga) in your garage. They are cheap now in America. You can burst out of your palace and make your way to Somalia, where you can become a pirate who earns $50-million a year.

Of course, if you don't have government connections in an unstable African country, you may have to start a country of your own. FP's got your back.

(Hat tip: Ethan Zuckerman)

Update: Apparently I had a brain malfunction and Beth flagged this last week in Smart takes. Sorry about that.

Photo: WALTER DHLADHLA/AFP/Getty Images

The explosive events that regularly occur in Lebanon tend to obscure, rather than reveal, the balance of power in the country. Analysts have a habit of taking the latest news as proof that the country is completely dominated by America and its allies, or by Syria's proxies in Lebanon.

By far the worst example of this is former Middle East correspondent Thanassis Cambanis, who pontificated recently in the Middle East Bulletin that, "Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are stronger in Lebanon that any point in the last decade." Cambanis went on to argue that this new balance of power required the United States to reconcile itself to negotiations with those sympathetic to Hezbollah.

Are Hezbollah and Syria really stronger than at any point in the last 10 years? Syrian troops occupied Lebanon until 2005. Until that time, all of the country's major Christian leaders were either in exile for their anti-Syrian views, or imprisoned. The Sunni and Druze political leaders were uniformly loyal to Syria, an alliance these Lebanese politicians broke in 2005 and one that has never been revived. The Syrians strong-armed Lebanese parliamentarians into accepting their hand-picked choice for president in 1998, and then into unconstitutionally extending his term in 2004. The main thing we learn from Cambanis's analysis is that he doesn’t have the first clue about recent Lebanese history.

Hezbollah recently won an important victory against the government through an armed invasion of Sunni areas of Beirut. But they were fighting against attempts by the Lebanese government to rein in their autonomy -- a fact that Lebanese parties had assented to quietly until just a few years ago, out of fear of the power of Syria and its allies. Syria occupied Lebanon for 25 years, and it was never reasonable to assume that all Syrian influence would be eradicated immediately. A little perspective shows that, rather than being in ascendance, Syria and Hezbollah's clout in Lebanon is close to its historical low, and the balance of power is not nearly as grim as some would have us believe.

The world isn't lacking in politicians caught in love scandals, but Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has embroiled himself in a drama so juicy it feels scripted for daytime soaps.

His ex-wife, Marisabel Rodriguez -- a blond haired, blue-eyed former television anchor (now married to her tennis coach) -- has been mirthlessly needling her ex-husband while she herself campaigns to become mayor of Barquisimeto, Venezuela, on an opposition ticket.

The couple divorced in 2004 after seven years of marriage and made headlines last year when Chávez rather publicly sued over custody issues pertaining to their daughter, Rosines. Though the president withdrew the suit, Rodriguez claimed it was a ploy to sabotage her newly announced political pursuits -- a ruling against her, under Venezuelan law, could have legally kept her from running for public office.

Chávez has good reason not to want his ex to run. Aside from any personal embarrassment the Venezuelan leader might endure over Rodriguez's outspoken campaigning style and her public criticisms of his presidency, he could suffer politically. His high approval ratings are said to be slipping, and the opposition stands to gain significant ground -- as many as one third of the country's governorships -- in regional elections Sunday.

Venezuelans are keen to hear the former Mrs. Chávez's insights on her ex-husband's intentions for his country:

[T]he Chávez of today ... doesn't have much in common with [the Chávez] of 1997,” she said. "If he is not a dictator, at least he seems it."

What's more, Ms. Rodriguez is proving hugely popular among women voters. In general, these women are turned off by the president's "testosterone-pumped politics" and can relate to the former first lady's emotional suffering.

Photo: ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP/Getty Images

When economic times get tough, sounding out of touch on pocketbook issues can debilitate even the most nimble politician. Just ask Taro Aso. The Japanese prime minister was already being pilloried as an elitist over his hotel bar tab and his epicurean tastes. So you'd think he'd be extra careful to avoid a pocketbook gaffe, right?

Wrong. Now, Aso has bungled a key question for any Japanese politician: What's the price of a cup of instant noodles?

Aso said: 'I think it used to be very cheap, but now it costs around 400 yen (4.12 dollars), doesn't it?'

An opposition lawmaker immediately retorted that a cup of instant noodles -- popular with Japanese on a tight budget -- actually costs around 170 yen.

Aso admitted with a wry smile: "I don't buy them myself these days."

Granted, it's better to err on the high side in making these sorts of seat-of-the-pants estimates. But what's with the gratuitous remark there at the end? It's almost like he's trying to give the opposition a boost.

As for this ill-timed photo op from earlier today, it's just icing on the cake:

John Stillwell-pool/Getty Images