The "dangerous" Ron Paul

With the latest polls showing him neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney in Iowa leading up to next week's caucuses, Ron Paul hasn't been toning down his non-traditional foreign policy rhetoric. Paul described sanctions against Iran as an "act of war" in front of a crowd in Iowa, and said Iran would be justified in blocking the Straits of Hormuz if they had no other recourse to respond.

Paul's unexpected poll surge has made him a target. In addition to the ongoing controversy over newsletters published under Paul's name during the 1990s, many of the attacks focus on his isolationist national security views. "One of the people running for president thinks it's O.K. for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I don't," Romney told a crowd this week. Michele Bachman, whose own campaign seems to be fading fast, called Paul's foreign policy beliefs "dangerous." Influential Iowa Representative Steve King also attacked his congressional colleague, saying  "I don't think that the Paul supporters have really stepped back and thought about what would happen if Ron Paul were operating out of the Oval Office and the commander-in-chief of our armed forces." New Hampshire's influential Union Leader newspaper, in endorsing Newt Gingrich this week, blasted Paul for spouting "nonsense" on national security.

Paul's campaign has brushed off the charges of national security naiveté, touting his popularity among veterans and claiming that he has "raised more funds from active military personnel than all other GOP competitors combined."

A late Santorum surge

All but written off just a few weeks ago, the conservative standard-bearer Rick Santorum is enjoying a late surge heading into the caucuses, with one recent poll putting him in third place. "I expect him to have a significantly better caucus night than predictors, the pundits, and the polls, have said over the last month," said Steve King. Santorum's rise is fueled mainly by Iowa's evangelical voters and is significant enough that Rick Perry has begun running ads attacking the former Pennsylvania senator's past support for earmarks.

In a recent radio interview, conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt asked Santorum if President Barack Obama intended for an Islamist front to take power in Egypt. Santorum wouldn't go quite that far but said that "this is a president who doesn't believe the Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamist front" and "does not understand what radical Islam is and its threat to the West." He also suggested the possibility of taking action against Iran to "show that we are not going to allow radicals to gain power and to use that power for purposes of spreading their radical jihadist ideology." 

Condi for Veep?

The Gingrich campaign's sagging fortunes don't seem to have discouraged the candidate from daydreaming of filling Cabinet posts and officials in his administration. At a speech in Columbia, South Carolina, Gingrich said he'd love to see former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a vice presidential debate with Joe Biden. "That would be about as great a mismatch of knowledge versus ignorance as we've seen," Gingrich said. Gingrich quickly denied that he was endorsing Rice for vice president, just praising her as a "terrifically smart" person. Gingrich had previously suggested he could nominate John Bolton as his secretary of state.

Gingrich wasn't the only one looking to start the veepstakes early this week. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich suggested that Biden should switch places with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the 2012 race, in order to "stir the passions and enthusiasms of a Democratic base."

Obama on a roll

Still benefiting from this month's fight with Republicans over extending the payroll tax cut, the president's approval ratings (47 percent) are now above his disapproval ratings (45 percent) for the first time since July 2010. But, since World War II, only Harry Truman won reelection with an approval rating below 48 percent.

What to watch for

Iowans will caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3, in the country's first major primary contest. RealClearPolitics' current poll average for the state has Romney at 21.6 percent, Paul at 21.2 percent, and Santorum and Gingrich tied at 14 percent. The New Hampshire primary -- which Jon Huntsman has chosen to focus on exclusively -- follows just a week later.

The latest from FP

Scott Clement looks at why Republican candidates are still failing to connect with Hispanic voters. 

Uri Friedman surveys the GOP field's selective approach to American exceptionalism, which makes room for Swiss healthcare, Chilean retirement schemes, and a Chinese-style (lack of) welfare state.  

The contributors to FP's Shadow Government blog, are weighing in this week with their assessments of how president Obama has handled foreign policy and national security this year.

Paul gets his turn

Just days from the Iowa caucuses, polls show Congressmen Ron Paul surging into the lead. The libertarian has long been an annoyance for the Republican establishment, but Paul's success in the polls has brought with it the kind of negative press the congressman avoided when he was viewed as merely a fringe candidate. Much of the attention this week has focused on newsletters that were published in Paul's name during the 1990s, while he was out of office. (The newsletters were also an issue in the 2008 election after the New Republic ran a lengthy expose on their contents.)

In addition to disparaging comments about African Americans and gays, the newsletters contain incendiary language about Israel, describing it as "an aggressive, national socialist state." Another passage suggests that the 1993 World Trade Center bombings may have been the handiwork of the Israeli spy agency, the Mossad. Paul's views were already suspect among many Jewish Republicans, who declined to invite him to a major candidate forum in Washington earlier this month because of his support for cutting U.S. aid to Israel. In several interviews this week, Paul denied writing the newsletters or even being aware of their contents at the time.

Newt Gingrich, who has seen his fortunes in the polls fade as Paul has surged, took a shot at the new kid on the block this week, describing Paul's foreign-policy views as naïve. "This is a guy who basically says, if the United States were only nice, it wouldn't have had 9/11. He doesn't want to blame the bad guys," Gingrich said in a radio interview. "He dismisses the danger of an Iranian nuclear weapon and seems to be indifferent to the idea that Israel could be wiped out.  And as I said, I think the key to his volunteer base is people who want to legalize drugs."

Michael Cohen took on Paul's foreign policy in a piece for FP this week, arguing that "his entire philosophy is largely a renunciation of much of what Republicans believe about America's role in the world."

Romney comes out swinging on security

As the media frenzy focuses on Paul and Gingrich, Mitt Romney has been working to build his commander-in-chief credentials with a series of statements on foreign policy. Speaking to reporters on his campaign bus, he said he believes Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin "endangers the stability and peacefulness of the globe." Speaking just hours before terrorist bombings ripped through Baghdad, he described President Barack Obama's inability to secure an agreement to keep U.S. troops in Iraq as one of his "signature failures."

In an interview with Fox's Chris Wallace last weekend, Romney gave the president credit for giving the order for the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, but then said that "any president would have done that." Critics immediately jumped on what appears to be yet another flip-flop from the candidate, who criticized candidate Obama in 2008 for saying he'd be willing to unilaterally order a raid within Pakistani territory. The Democratic National Committee  began running ads this week featuring comments from prominent Republicans including former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, praising the president's handling of the bin Laden raid.

North Korea reactions

Several of the candidates issued statements this week in reaction to the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il. Romney called on China to "exert its influence" over its neighbor and take control of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. He also said that he hoped Kim's death would hasten the end of the North Korean regime. Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman said Kim's death gives North Koreans "the best opportunity to get on a path towards a more free and open society and political reform." Rick Perry said the United States should "engage with China, and encourage Beijing to work towards a peaceful transition from a grim dictatorship to a free Korea," though the strength of his message was somewhat undermined by a press release referring to "Kim Jong II." To be fair, an "I" and an "l" look pretty similar ... and he's not the first candidate to think the late tyrant's name indicated that he was the second Kim Jong.

Obama's foreign-policy advantage?

Something of a consensus seems to be developing that -- considering the state of the U.S. economy -- that foreign policy could be the president's strong suit going into this election. CNN's Fareed Zakaria, writes that Republicans, facing two unpopular wars and unable to make traditional attacks of appeasement stick, are "effectively ceding the vast swathe of foreign policy to Obama." Conservative commentator Juan Williams notes that following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, Obama "has fulfilled a major campaign promise" and that we're facing an unusual 2012 political scenario, in which Republicans will find a Democratic presidential incumbent vulnerable on the economy but strong on national security.

Indeed, the president gets strong marks from voters on his handling of national security and terrorism. But as poll-watcher Scott Clement noted last week in Foreign Policy's Election 2012 Channel, Obama's numbers aren't quite as strong on international affairs generally, or the war on Afghanistan in particular.

Return of Iraq

The war in Iraq was a defining issue of the last election, and Obama got high marks from voters from wanting to end the campaign there, one he never supported. But if the current violence and political dysfunction in the country continue following the recent troop withdrawal, it could quickly reemerge as a major national security headache for the Obama administration. In addition to Romney, Gingrich blasted the withdrawal this week, saying, "I think we're going to find to our great sadness that we've lost several thousand young Americans and had many thousands more wounded undertaking a project that we couldn't do." Obama's 2008 opponent, Sen. John McCain, also weighed in, telling the American Enterprise Institute's Danielle Petka, "All the gains we have achieved in Iraq are now at risk, and the enormous expenditure of blood and treasure that those gains entailed are now in jeopardy of being viewed by history as sacrifices made in vain."

What to watch for

 For the next two weeks, it's all eyes on Iowa. Paul (27.5 percent) retains a slight lead in a recent University of Iowa poll, with Gingrich (25.3 percent) a close second, Romney (17.5 percent) in third, and Perry (11.2 percent) a distant fourth.

Huntsman, who has a laser-like focus on New Hampshire, has opted out of Iowa entirely, but for the socially conservative (and bottom-dwelling) candidates Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann a strong showing in the caucuses might be their last chance to save their campaigns. Some recent polls show Santorum climbing into fourth place in Iowa, and his campaign has blanketed the state with major advertising buys. Bachmann is still drawing enthusiastic crowds, but appears unlikely to climb out of the single-digits.    

The latest from FP:

Michael Cohen speculates on just what a Ron Paul foreign policy would look like.

Scott Clement says Republican voters aren't as worried about Iran as their candidates' rhetoric might suggest.

Joshua Keating discusses Huntsman's dubious claim to have done "more than anybody" to fight China's one-child policy.

David Rothkopf looks at the 14 biggest lies of 2011.Most of the 2012 candidates -- including the president -- are guilty of several of them.

The Israel Primary:

The main foreign-policy event of the campaign week was a forum hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition, during which six of the GOP candidates attacked the administration's policies toward Israel. Congressman Ron Paul, who favors cutting U.S. aid to Israel -- as well as every other country -- was not invited.  

Current front-runner and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich led the charge, accusing the White House of "one-sided, continuing pressure that says it's always the Israelis' fault no matter how bad the other side" and promised to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem -- a controversial move approved by Congress 15 years ago but resisted by the last three administrations -- on the first day of his presidency. Gingrich also vowed to appoint former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton as his secretary of state.

Gingrich's main rival, former governor Mitt Romney, devoted much of his remarks to Iran, saying "regime change is what's going to be necessary" and promising to indict President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for the crime of incitement to genocide. Romney and Gingrich both called on the White House to fire Howard Gutman, the U.S. ambassador to Belgium who set off a firestorm of controversy with a speech that suggested a distinction between anti-Jewish sentiment in the Middle East and other forms of anti-Semitism.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, the former U.S. ambassador to China under the Obama administration, said Gutman's comments reflected a deeper strain of anti-Israel sentiment within the administration. "These aren't speeches that are cooked up at the local level and at the embassy.... They go high up within the State Department," he said.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, attempting to assuage Israeli concerns about his pledge to drastically reduce foreign aid, promised that "strategic, defensive aid" to Israel would actually increase under his administration.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann touted her personal connections to Israel, particularly her time volunteering on a kibbutz in 1974. She also said she does "not see presently that there is a road to statehood" for the Palestinians.    

Former Senator Rick Santorum compared U.S. policies toward Islamic extremists to actions taken by Britain before World War II. "For every thug and hooligan, for every radical Islamist, he has had nothing but appeasement," he said. Romney also accused the administration of appeasement with regard to Iran.

Obama: Ask Bin Laden:

Asked by a reporter to respond to the "appeasement" charge at a press conference on Thursday, a visibly testy President Barack Obama replied, "Ask Osama bin Laden and the 22 out of 30 top al Qaeda leaders who have been taken off the field whether I engage in appeasement. Or whoever is left out there, ask them about that."

Obama also defended his administration's record on Iran, saying it has "systematically imposed the toughest sanctions" on Tehran and that the country is more isolated than ever.

Gay rights becomes a foreign-policy flashpoint:

The Obama administration announced a new initiative this week to use foreign aid and international diplomacy to promote gay rights abroad, for the first time identifying LGBT issues as a major U.S. foreign-policy goal. Santorum and Perry, two of the more socially conservative candidates in the race, were quick to respond.

"Obviously the administration is promoting their particular agenda in this country, and now they feel it's their obligation to promote those values not just in the military, not just in our society, but now around the world with taxpayer dollars," Santorum told reporters in Iowa.

"This administration's war on traditional American values must stop. Promoting special rights for gays in foreign countries is not in America's interests and not worth a dime of taxpayers' money," Perry said in a statement to supporters.

Perry's comments seemed to be part of his slumping campaigns attempts to reach out to socially conservative voters, and followed a TV ad in which the candidate lamented "there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school."

Huntsman backtracks on climate:

Huntsman, widely viewed as the moderate in the race despite a very conservative governing record, has distinguished himself from most of the candidates in the field by openly supporting the notion that human activity is causing climate change. "To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy," he tweeted in August. But the candidate seemed to backtrack on that position in a speech to the Heritage Foundation this week, in which he argued that there "questions about the validity" of climate science and that there's "not enough information right now to be able to formulate policies" on global warming.

Huntsman joins Gingrich, Romney, and Paul in the group of candidates who once allowed for the human factor in climate change but have changed their tune when running for president.

What to watch for:

The candidates meet for two debates in Iowa this week, the first on Saturday night in Des Moines on ABC, the second on Thursday in Sioux City on Fox News. With Gingrich still leading the polls, expect other candidates to go on the attack.

On Monday, Gingrich and Huntsman will go head-to-head in a Lincoln-Douglas style debate on foreign policy and national security at New Hampshire's St. Anselm College. Gingrich, who has been openly critical of the format and moderating of previous debates (particularly when he was shunted to the side, before becoming a front-runner), has repeatedly expressed his desire for Lincoln-Douglas debates and has said he will challenge Obama to seven of them if he wins the nomination. Gingrich may be hoping that giving Huntsman a prominent platform may help him take moderate votes away from Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is still leading. Romney has declined Gingrich's invitation for a one-on-one Lincoln-Douglas debate.

The latest from FP:

Despite the hype surrounding this week's Jewish coalition event, pollwatcher Scott Clement says Israel won't actually matter all that much in next year's election.

Michael Cohen wonders why Obama is trying so hard to avoid the label "apologist-in-chief."

On Passport, Joshua Keating looks at an FP cover story by Gingrich from 2003 and the candidates' ambitious plans for their "first day in office."