Latin America

Honduran politicians apparently didn't get the memo that last week's U.S.-mediated deal had ended their country's political deadlock:

Zelaya's supporters say that failure to approve the deal in the next few days would kill the final opportunity to legitimize this month's presidential elections by keeping a government in power that no foreign leaders have recognized. They warn there could be more of the street protests and repressive government countermoves that have sunk the country's economy.

However, Honduras' congressional leadership has postponed the crucial vote by asking the country's Supreme Court, attorney general and human rights ombudsman to give nonbinding opinions on the legality of Zelaya's return.

One sign that this is far from over is that Zelaya still won't leave the Brazilian embassy -- where he has been hold up since sneaking back into Honduras in September -- for fear of arrest. Something tells me that Zelaya has spent all this time sleeping on an aerobed having music blasted at him at 2 a.m. just to finish off the last few weeks of his term. That's why Micheletti's supporters aren't likely to let him anywhere near the presidency before the elction -- which most countries have promised not to recognize.

So essentially, we're back where we started.  

When you think about communist propaganda, you might think of Stalin glaring down at you from a wall, happy workers singing in strangely clean factories and well-thumbed copies of Mao's little red book.

But it's the twenty-first century, and even commies must keep up with the times. A dissident faction of Peru's Shining Path -- VRAE -- is now making its case online, with a website and You Tube uploads of revolutionarily inspiring songs. 

The songs performed by a VRAE leader in the Andean musical style of Huayño assure the listener that:

Imperialism will be defeated/socialism will flower the world/ imperialism, mainly genocidal Yankees, sucks the blood of the millions of poor around the world/to combat them, to defeat them, is our task/to annihilate them with our forces is our obligation."

 
But, the political analysis on their website is even better. They tear apart the jailed Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman, labeling him a "revisionist" and a terrorist, and criticize governments such as Nepal, Hamas and Bolivia for practicing pseudo-socialism.

The tract reads like a blast from the past, as if the Amazon fosters active denial of lost battles (many Japanese immigrants in Brazil famously denied their emperor's defeat for nearly a decade). In a shout out to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, they call him the natural leader of socialism, upon whom it is incumbent to lead the armed fight against Yankee imperialism. They urge unity in this:

We must put to one side the narrow nationalism which is very noxious and damaging ... [and which is] parasitically fomented by Yankee imperialism and its lackeys."

Extra points for their genious use of the word lackey together with Yankee imperialism-- when's the last time you heard that one?

While it's all song and talk -- and assurances of democratic intentions -- on the internet, Peruvian authorities are somewhat concerned about the possibility of the narco-terrorist group recruiting more followers. Leaders from the main Shining Path group, which put down arms a decade ago, are contemplating running for office in upcoming Peruvian elections.

U.S. policymakers are celebrating this this morning's breakthrough in Tegucigalpa. Speaking in Islamabad, Hillary Clinton said:

I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue. 

In a press release, Sen. John Kerry also praised the agreement:

“I welcome the agreement ending the crisis in Honduras. The restoration of democracy is an historic accomplishment for the Honduran people. The accord provides a roadmap for elections on November 29, but success will depend on rigorous international monitoring of the accord’s implementation.

I would say that success depends more on both sides sticking to the agreement. Before he can return for to serve out his last month as president, Zelaya still has to win a vote in a Congress controlled by his opponents. Then there's an imminent election. It would be hard for any country to shift seamlessly from military standoff to democratic election mode in time to hold an a credible election in less than a month.

Yes, Zelaya is constitutionally barred from running but the inevitable chaos of the next few weeks could give him the opportunity to delay the vote or justify his own candidacy as a bid to restore national unity. Zelaya's desire to run again was, after all, what set this crisis in motion. 

In other words, there are plenty of opportunities for shenanigans on both sides in the coming weeks. Last night's agreement is certainly welcome progress, but I think international observers should probably take a little more time to observe the situation and make sure it's not still Groundhog Day.  

ORLANDO SIERRA/AFP/Getty Images

I'm not surprised by conservative Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer's negative comments about President Obama in an interview with Der Spiegel, but what's his problem with Brazil?

Krauthammer: He is a man of perpetual promise. There used to be a cruel joke that said Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be; Obama is the Brazil of today's politicians. He has obviously achieved nothing. And in the American context, to be the hero of five Norwegian leftists, is not exactly politically positive.

Brazil has "obviously achieved nothing"? The country has pulled off a veritable economic miracle in recent years, maintaining impressive growth rates and accumulating enough cash reserves to become a net creditor, all while expanding social programs. It's weathered the global economic downturn surprisingly well and along with East Asia, seems to be leading the pack in recovery. It's a global leader in investment in alternative energy. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his foreign minsiter Ceslo Amorim have become ubiquitous and influential participants at global summits -- and as my boss recently argued, have shown the Latin American left an alternative to Hugo Chavez's confrontational populism. Brazil recently beat the U.S. for the right to host the 2016 Olympics. (Krauthammer may remember that one.)

I'd say calling someone the "Brazil of politicians" should be a compliment.

It seems that even socialists are getting sick of Michael Moore.

Moore recently went on Jimmy Kimmel Live and made a joke about getting drunk with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and helping him write his speeches to the United Nations. Well the Chavistas were having none of that.

Take this paragraph from Eva Golinger, one of Chavez's most prominent defenders:

Moore is exceptionally full of himself towards the end of the interview with Jimmy Kimmel. He says Chávez asked him for advice about his upcoming United Nations speech. Moore sternly told the South American president to "say sorry for calling Bush the devil, "el diablo"" during his last UN intervention. And to say this time around it's all about the "hope"! Way to defend Bush, Michael! Wait, didn't you write, direct and film Fahrenheit 9/11? Right, but when someone "non-US" tells it like it is, you get way patriotic. I get it.

Other outrage followed suit. They lambasted Moore for saying that Chavez drinks, even worse that he drinks tequila. They also got unusually offended at the idea that Chavez would use speechwriters, or for that matter, Teleprompters. The exclamation-point-happy Golinger said, "We know that nobody writes his speeches, not even him! He speaks from his heart, and not from a teleprompter!"

Michael Moore has been called many things in his career, but a supporter of George W. Bush? This has to be a first.

Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images

I don't quite understand the point of this:

U.S. President Barack Obama asked Spain to pass Cuba a message on the need for democratic reform when he met Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero earlier this month, according to a U.S. official....

"When (Obama) learned that Foreign Minister Moratinos was about to go to Havana, he suggested that Moratinos urge the Castro regime to take steps to reform and improve human rights," the U.S. official said on Sunday, speaking on condition of anonymity....

The U.S. request to deliver a message to Cuba was first reported by Spain's El Pais newspaper, which said Obama talked of a potential turning point in the relationship with Havana, but said it was important for Cuba take some steps.

"Have (Moratinos) tell the Cuban authorities we understand that change can't happen overnight, but down the road, when we look back at this time, it should be clear that now is when those changes began," Obama told Zapatero, according to diplomatic sources quoted by El Pais.

 I have a feeling that after half a century, the Castro brothers probably realize that the U.S. doesn't much like the way they run their country and don't need the Spanish foreign minister to tell them. And if Obama has something new to say to the Cuban regime, why can't he say it himself, if not through his own envoy than through a letter.

It sends a pretty strange message that the administration is unwilling to have any direct contact with the Cuban regime, even just to admonish them, but seems to have no problem with other countries doing it. 

Followers of Latin American politics awoke in June to a familiar, if long-absent, nightmare: A president forced out of his house in pyjamas and onto a plane into exile. Yet, despite the death of 19-year-old-protestor Isis Obed soon after, the Honduras coup did not follow the region's old pattern of terror and disappearances.

Instead, human rights groups report a low, but constant level of violence towards protestors, which seems to be having a demoralizing effect without raising terribly strong reactions from the internal and international communities. A member of the Organization of American States' human rights group explained:

We did not find people disappeared like you'd have seen 20 years ago ... [The de facto government will] detain 100, 150, 200 people at a march and put them in a detention facility. They will only beat up a dozen of them. In the meantime, it's enough to break up the demonstration and make people a little more careful about going out next time.''

Nonetheless, the human rights situation is far from innocuous. Human rights groups in Honduras claim that between 10 and 15 people have died as a result from run-ins with the armed forces, several bodies have been found under suspicious circumstances. The most recent death is that of union leader Jaire Sanchez, who died this weekend from a bullet wound received at a protest. Dozens of other defenders of Zelaya claim to have been threatened.

The de facto government has been blocking investigations into abuses, making corroboration more difficult, according to Human Rights Watch, which has urged the international community to reject any deal that involves amnesty for human rights violations. Here's how the OAS mission describe the situation back in August:

[A] pattern of disproportionate use of public force on the part of police and military forces, arbitrary detentions, and the control of information aimed at limiting political participation by a sector of the citizenry. This resulted in the deaths of at least four persons [at that time], dozens of injuries, thousands of arbitrary detentions, the temporary shutdown of television channels, and threats and assaults against journalists."

In the face of an OAS delegation to investigate possible violations, de facto President Roberto Micheletti finally made good yesterday on a promise to reopen two opposition broadcasters shut down 22 days ago. 

It has become a nightmare of a different sort, the negotiators probably feel it's the kind where you're running but just can't seem to stop going in circles, as the clock ticks down to the Nov. 29 elections, scheduled before the coup and which many countries have promised not to recognize if an agreement between ousted President Zelaya and Micheletti is not reached soon.

YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images

Argentine President Cristina Kirchner probably still can't believe she signed a newly minted media law on on Saturday, after a hot-blooded 20 hour debate in the Senate that ended with an early morning street party outside Congress. The law, which passed 44-24 effectively limits media monopolies, replacing an archaic law passed by a military dictatorship government in 1980.

But every fairy-tale has to have an evil monster, in this case the media conglomerate Grupo Clarín, which has fiercely opposed the Kirchner government and which, under the new law's rules, will now have to sell off radio stations and television channels:

"The government is going after the media with all its remaining power," Clarín Editor Ricardo Roa wrote Saturday. "It has rushed through a misleading law that seems to be progressive but in reality only sets us back: it will promote a press that is weaker and more docile."

Clarín, of course, has advocates. They question the one year limit to sell assets that the law imposes, and whether this will not drive prices down, allowing pro-government buyers to snap up the stations.

Offsetting these questions is the glowing support of varied sectors of Argentine society and the international, like United Nations Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Opinion and Expression Frank La Rue, who called the new law "an example for other countries."

Perhaps the most interesting reaction was that of the opposition leader, Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires, whose party has now proposed a law giving them regulation power over the city's cable TV.

History repeats: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

Photo: JUAN MABROMAT/AFP