Earlier this year, Ken E. Gause wrote about all that we didn't know regarding North Korea's succession head-scratcher. And while media speculation over the outcome has been spinning since 2003, it wasn't until yesterday that Kim Jong-Il declared his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, his future replacement.

North Koreans call him "Commander Kim," a small clue into the way Jong-Un, 26, might run the show. He enjoys a close relationship with the military, having attended Kim Il-Sung Military University before being appointed to the National Defense Commission. North Korea's recent missile and nuclear tests, experts say, is likely an attempt by the Dear Leader to consolidate the military's authority — and by extension, his son's.

But, says one report, while the succession issue seems to have been resolved, the announcement is a prime opportunity for Jang Song-Taek, the Dear Leader's brother-in-law:

Jang, who is married to Kim Jong Il's younger sister, was purged five years ago after being seen as a threat to Kim Jong Il's authority. But he was brought back ... to get a spot on the powerful National Defense Commission. Working in Kim Jong Woon's shadows, Jang could bide his time consolidating power and emerge as the country's next dictator, Choi and other analysts say: "This is political power," Choi says. "This is not something you share."

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With the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown on Thursday, China's ever-vigilant censors have stepped up the reach of the "Great Firewall," blocking Western sites like Twitter, Flickr, and (just one day after its launch) Microsoft's Bing.

 The measures came as the authorities tried to close all avenues of dissent ahead of Thursday's anniversary, placing prominent critics under house arrest and banning newspaper from making any mention of the pro-democracy protests.

The co-ordinated internet "takedown" occurred at 5pm local time (10am GMT) on Tuesday as a broad range of websites suddenly became unavailable to Chinese internet users[...]

Foreign newspaper and television channels were also subject to censorship as the highly sensitive anniversary approached.

Viewers of the BBC's world channels in Beijing found their screens turning black whenever reports on the anniversary were being aired and four foreign television crews attempting to film in Tiananmen Square reported being stopped by police.

Print publications were also affected, with many subscribers to The Economist magazine receiving their weekly copies with the Tiananmen-related pages ripped out. Readers of the Financial Times and South China Morning post also reported missing pages.

As for those who saw the expanded censorship coming, the "Surprisingly Accurate Internet Claim" award goes to Chinese blogger Michael Anti, who just last Wednesday told Danwei.org:

"Twitter is a new thing in China. The censors need time to figure out what it is. So enjoy the last happy days of twittering before the fate of Youtube descends on it one day."

If there's one group who respond quickly to news, though, it's Twitter users, who have already made the topic one of the most talked about on the site. After all, as one user put it: "No Twitter in China now? How do they make it through the day?"

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Over at The New Yorker, Evan Osnos has been writing about China's "green-tech space race" with the United States.

Potential Twitter version: Bushies, asleep at switch, drunk on oil, missed boat."  

Meanwhile, guess who's taken up the emerald green mantle?

It might be startling to realize that China is far outpacing the U.S. on green-energy investment."

He is picking up on a recent report by the Washington-based think tank, Center for American Progress: "We Must Seize the Energy Opportunity or Slip Further Behind."

Osnos is, I think, one of the finest correspondents writing from China today. But here I beg to differ. Or at least urge a bit of a reframing.

Yes, China is and has been doing far more on the environmental front than most foreigners realize. Lord knows, this is a point worth emphasizing, and I've certainly beat the drum here myself.

But let's put this in perspective: First, as a general point, China has had ambitious green goals for several years, especially on energy efficiency, but implementation still lags behind reality. Before we cheer, or worry, too much about Beijing's presumed green-technology progress, let's see what actually gets built. Large earmarks for infrastructure, green or otherwise, are particularly susceptible to local corruption. (The shiniest government office buildings in Lanzhou, capital of Gansu province, were built out of something called the"poverty reduction fund.") Alas, lately we've seen a relaxing of green construction standards in China for the sake of putting economic stimulus money to work quickly. In sum: Setting budgets and targets is easy; follow-through is harder.

Second, on the particular matter of green-energy investment, pretty please stop putting so much faith in the framing of the Center for American Progress. I like CAP. They do good work. But they also have a long-standing habit of beating up on U.S. policy by pointing out that even China is doing more. I'm not against beating up on the U.S., or against giving kudos to China when due. But I am wary of how this formula can lead to exaggerated estimations of what China is in fact doing. (A few years back, CAP put out similar statements when Beijing announced lofty, and as yet unmet, energy efficiency targets.)

Lastly, and most importantly, I think that highlighting the competition angle could ultimately be counter-productive, as fun as it is to envision a U.S. vs China jolly green smackdown. Stressing a rivalry could ultimately lead -- not necessarily in Osnos’s hands, but in looser, more politically-minded interpretations -- to the impression that the race for green energy is somehow a zero-sum game. That any progress made by China (again, let’s be careful to avoid exaggeration here) is somehow threatening to the U.S. Like if the Soviets got to the moon first; oh no. It’s us or them; only one racer breaks the ribbon; get off our green lunar pathway!

Some might argue that Americans do best when their competitive instincts are aroused. But I tend to agree with Charles McElwee, an environmental lawyer in Shanghai whom Osnos cites and whose insights I've long found valuable: Fanning the flames of us-vrs-them-ism -- in the context of global issue that isn't so much a race to win as to survive -- could backfire. It could undercut political support on Capitol Hill for cooperative efforts, technology sharing, and perhaps even climate-treaty negotiations.

For too long, on climate matters, the U.S. and China have been stuck in a dusty stalemate, with both sides refusing to budge first -- especially with regards to seriously considering carbon caps -- while they eye each other as threats, and competitors. Somehow this Gunsmoke scenario needs to end.

Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images

Here's what the action star said at a forum whose attendees included Wen Jiabao:

"I'm not sure if it is good to have freedom or not," he said. "I'm really confused now. If you are too free, you are like the way Hong Kong is now. It's very chaotic. Taiwan is also chaotic."

He added: "I'm gradually beginning to feel that we Chinese need to be controlled. If we are not being controlled, we'll just do what we want."

Via Evgeny, I see that the comments have provoked an angry online backlash in Taiwan and Hong Kong as well as the blogosphere on the mainland. There are calls for a boycott of the "racist" Chan's films.

At Post Global, John Pomfret sees a class dynamic at play:

Chan is just saying what a lot of other rich Chinese feel. In the 20 years since Tiananmen, Chinese society has changed enormously. One of the most astounding ways has been in the return of a class society and in the disdain with which China's rich view China's poor. When Chan was saying Chinese need to be "controlled," to be sure, he was speaking about the poor. He didn't have to say it, But that's what the audience at Boao heard and that's why they cheered him on. Anyone who has conversations of depth with members of China's elite has heard this argument before.

Granted I don't know much about the context, but it seems to me like it's at least possible that Chan is being sarcastic. The comments were in response to a question about censorship. Chan's new film Shinjuku was recently banned in mainland China because of violence. It seems strange to me that Chan would so vociferously praise a set of policies that resulted in him losing quite a bit of revenue. Whatever his class prejudices or political beliefs, I'm sure that Chan believes that poor Chinese should at least be free to spend their hard-earned yuan on his products. He should also know better than to insult his many fans in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Chan's not in a position to criticize a decision by the Chinese government, but the over-the-top comments seem like they could be a subtle dig at the Chinese authorities for being so uptight about his movie. Then again, I could be giving the guy too much credit. 

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Speaking with the New York Times, a top Chinese economist explained why China is cutting its holdings of U.S. bonds by quoting John Maynard Keynes: “If you owe your bank manager a thousand pounds, you are at his mercy. If you owe him a million pounds, he is at your mercy.”

With that reasoning in mind, China sold U.S. Treasuries and other foreign bonds in the first two months of the year; it returned to buying them in March. Around two-thirds of China’s foreign reserves are held in dollars.

That bulk holding has complicated relations between the two economic super-powers during the Great Recession. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and the central bank governors have expressed concern about the U.S. economic situation and their exposure to it -- though the resumption of  purchases in March suggests they may believe the outlook is better.

Still, numerous economists and policy experts have suggested careful, controlled, slow draw-down would be a good thing for both countries. 

Reuters reports on the details of Japan's largest-ever economic stimulus plan, revealed by Prime Minister Taro Aso. He intends to make cultural products 18 percent of Japan's exports, up from around 2 percent now.

Aso waved glossy magazines from China and Taiwan featuring Japanese pop stars on their covers.

"Japanese content, such as anime and video games, and fashion draw attention from consumers around the world," he said.

"Unfortunately, this 'soft power' is not being linked to business overseas ... By linking the popularity of Japan's 'soft power' to business, I want to create a 20-30 trillion yen ($200-300 billion) market by 2020 and create 500,000 new jobs."

The proposal seems a bit pie-in-the-sky -- Japan's exports have more than halved this year. But the country's certainly on a mission to expand its cultural importance (including in all things cute). Nota bene, Gwen Stefani. 

Photo: Flickr user dogonthesidewalk

This morning, Politico reports on a Rasmussen poll taken two days before North Korea's botched rocket launch. The release leads with the alarming line: "Fifty-seven percent (57%) of U.S. voters nationwide favor a military response to eliminate North Korea’s missile launching capability."

The poll shows that both genders support military intervention equally, and that two-thirds of Republicans and just over half of Democrats do. Only 15 percent oppose it. 

Still, it's not convincing evidence that most Americans are clamoring to send in the troops. The question read: 

If North Korea launches a long-range missile, should the United States take military action to eliminate North Korea's ability to launch missiles?

Thus far, North Korea hasn't shown a lot of success with long-range missiles. The question also came immediately after one about concern over North Korea's nuclear capacity. 

The most interesting finding of the poll, perhaps, shows a 14-point drop in people considering North Korea an enemy, and a massive skew along political lines over whether the Stalinist collectivist state is an enemy, ally, or something in between:

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans consider North Korea an enemy of the United States. That view is shared by 50% of unaffiliateds and 28% of Democrats. Most Democrats (57%) place North Korea somewhere between ally and enemy.

Photo: Flickr user Borut Peterlin 

No one is betting on the health of Argentina's economy these days. Ever since the country defaulted on its international debt in 2001, confidence that its economic situation could turn around has been extremely low. Indeed, in February, when the Argentine government requested permission to once again enter its bonds into U.S. capital markets, the Wall Street Journal suggested this response:

The SEC should instead insist that Argentine securities bear a warning like cigarette packages: 'This issuer has a record of misrepresentation, debt defaults and debt repudiation, and therefore may be dangerous to your financial health. Do not consume this issuer's bonds unless you have a platoon of lawyers and a Navy to back them up, and you're prepared to use both.'"

Why, then, would China use this week's Inter-American Development Bank meeting in Medillín to agree to a $10.24 billion currency swap with a country whose bonds could be worth next to nothing by the end of 2010? Two reasons seem apparent -- one is straightforward, the other is disturbing.

First, as Xinhua reports, the Argentines can essentially use the RMB as extra cash to pay for imports. But one might note that, since the Yuan is not a convertible currency, the money can only be used to purchase goods from -- you guessed it -- China, potentially giving a boost the Dragon's ailing export sector.

The other reason for the swap seems more strategic, especially in conjunction with other currency trades that China has very quietly signed with Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Belarus, and Indonesia over the past three months. As the Financial Times puts it:

Economists...see Beijing's currency swap deals as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi, starting with making it more acceptable for trade and aiming at establishing it as a reserve currency in Asia, something that would also enhance China's political clout." 

Combine these actions with China's recent call to replace the U.S. dollar as the international reserve unit, and it starts to look like this currency swap has nothing at all to do with Argentina.

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Choson Sinbo, a pro-Pyongyang newspaper based in Japan, reports that Supreme Leader and noted epicure Kim Jong Il has opened the first pizzeria in his famine-wracked country.  

Kim's interest in gourmet food and drink is long-standing -- he's Hennessy cognac's biggest individual customer, for instance. The restaurant is the culmination of his decade-long investment in producing the perfect pies. In the 1990s, he hired an Italian pizza-maker to teach his staff the vital art of olive placement. And, after "trial and error" failed to bring the pizza up to snuff, he sent them to Italy last year.

Apparently the trip was a success: the restaurant now serves pasta and pizza made with ingredients flown in from Europe to North Korea's elite. Though Kim allegedly "does not eat much, but enjoys picking at various kinds of food, as if just to taste" -- an irony that's got to be hard to stomach.  

Photo: KNS/AFP/Getty Images

Creative financing schemes and frisky credit-risk assessments haven't only catapulted capitalist economies to the brink. For years China's state-run banks have relied upon a coterie of dubious experts and shady loan guarantee companies when extending credit. Now, as things fall apart, Forbes' Gady Epstein finds he can't get his calls returned -- these phantom financial wizards have lately taken a turn for the reclusive -- but still manages to lift the veil on China's consequential credit underground.

 

Whether or not banks elsewhere are nationalized, the real issue remains whether financial planners know what they're doing. Tim Geithner, take note.

On the other hand, per Forbes, at least credit is still available in China:

"In America, basically, private capital has dried up, but in China you have these large pools of capital sitting around," says Anne Stevenson-Yang, principal of Wedge MKI, an investment research and advisory firm in Beijing. "The problem is that most of the short-term capital and capital for private companies is in these gray and sometimes semicriminal networks."

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World leaders are becoming ever more internet savvy these days. Obama's team used the web to create a grassroots presidential campaign and his administration continues to send emails and post youtube videos to disseminate information. Even in some of the most unlikely places, presidents and prime ministers are going to the internet to get in touch with the people -- or at least to give that impression -- as even Dmitry Medvedev and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have setup their own online fora.

The latest example is China, where Premier Wen Jiabao spent two hours online chatting with netizens on Saturday. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Wen started by saying he'd been looking forward to chatting online with the public. 'I am glad to have this online chat with all of you,' he said. 'I always believe that the public has the right to know what the government is thinking and doing, and criticize and suggestions on government policy.' He also said that he was a bit nervous in his first online chat, but said that he would follow his mother's advice to 'always talk honestly and with heart.'"

 

While the motives for leaders like "Grandpa Wen" surely involve a bit (if not more) of propaganda, it seems encouraging that participants were allowed to ask straightforward questions and air legitimate concerns:

-'Affected by the financial crisis, we farmers find it hard to find jobs. I want to start my own small business... I hope we farmers can also get small-scale loans that we can repay in three or five years.' Wen said the government should encourage them to start their own businesses by offering a tax stimulus and training opportunities.

-'As a consumer, I feel like I am treated like God in the shops. But when can I feel the same way while in hospitals?' Wen replied that the government will do more to make the country's health care system more accessible and affordable.

-'Premier Wen, what do you think about the power of government officials? And what do you think the power you hold?' Wen said the government is making active preparations for officials to declare their assets as part of the effort to combat corruption."

However, the premier did not have time to get to every question:

-Late Premier Zhou Enlai was known of being able to drink a lot, so how much can you drink?"

This chat was undoubtedly an effort to bolster the premier's already soaring reputation. Still, for the average Chinese person, this type of candid interaction with the a government leader would have been largely unimaginable even ten years ago. 

Feng Li/Getty Images

Considering that their states are still technically at war, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso got along remarkably well during their summit meeting in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on Wednesday. While palling around on Sakhalin Island at the opening of a new $22 billion LNG plant (the first such plant in Russia), Aso and Medvedev praised the economic cooperation that has helped Russia and Japan strengthen their relationship over the past ten years.

Annual trade has now reached $30 billion, tripling in size since 2004. The first phase of the massively expensive ESPO pipeline, connecting oil reserves in Siberia with Russia's Pacific coast, has been completed and the construction of phase two has been announced. This is rare good news for two economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global financial crisis.

But it's still not all smiles between the two countries. The violent reaction of Vladivostok's workers to the imposition of a tariff on Japanese vehicles in late December displays the importance of Japanese commerce to Russia's remote Far East provinces. More seriously,a Japanese ship carrying ¥12.8 million worth of medical aid at the request of Russian residents on the disputed Kuril Islands was turned away in January because the Japanese delegation refused to show disembarkation cards, a move that the Japanese consider tantamount to recognizing Russian sovereignty over the Kurils. T

The Japanese claim that the Kuril islands -currently under Russian control - are historically Japanese and were seized illegally by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. The dispute over the islands has prevented Russia and Japan from signing a peace treaty and officially ending the war.

Until the Kuril issue is resolved, Japan and Russia will continue to be in the contradictory position of building ever closer ties while still officially fighting World War II.

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When violence erupted in the island nation of Madagascar two weeks ago, few would have guessed that South Korean conglomerate Daewoo Logistics was partly to blame (or at least, there to take the blame). Daewoo won claim to plant corn on a Qatar-sized portion of Madagascar last November. And a leader of the protests says the deal is one reason for revolt.

The island leased its land to Daewoo for free for 99 years, claiming the benefit of jobs for Madagascar and a boost in investor confidence. Madagascar was cultivating its image as an island haven for peace, tourism, and investment. That is, until the seeds of civil war sprung up last month. Now, Daewoo says its plans are on hold.

About two weeks ago, a feisty opposition party mayor (and former DJ), Andry Rajoelina, proclaimed the government illegitimate and made his own move for power. In addition to organizing mass protests, Rajoelina even claimed to be the true president, that is until the current holder of that job fired him. So far, 100 people have died in violence between protesters and government forces.

So it wasn't that Daewoo didn't see this coming; it just inadvertently contributed to the mess. Years of poverty and a less-than-stellar government were enough for most Malagasies, so watching their land handed freely to South Korea was a bit over the top. "They sold the country's territory to foreign companies," Rajoelina complained to French Radio. "For these [and other] reasons, we demand a transitional government."

Now Daewoo's corn-to-feed-Korea project and Madagascar's government are both on the rocks. The opposition has named its own ministers and called for a general strike. But if Rajoelina gets his way (or even if he doesn't), I'm guessing Daewoo won't be the only company running for the coast.

Photo: WALTER ASTRADA/AFP/Getty Images

Iceland economic and political collapse may have indirectly paved the way for a major gay rights victory, but it also seems to have resulted in a setback for environmentalists. On its way out the door, Iceland's previous government substantially increased whaling quotas for the next five years in what environmental groups see as a swipe at the left-leaning interim government, which largely opposes whaling:

"This is basically an act of sabotage, an act of bitterness, against the incoming government," said Arni Finnsson from the Iceland Nature Conservation Association (INCA).

The new rules will allow the hunting of 100 minke whales and 150 fin whales over the next five years. The incoming government may still overturn the decision. Iceland is one of the three remaining countries -- along with Norway and Japan -- that stil permits commercial whaling.

Japan is also pushing to overturn international restrictions on whaling. Rumors recently trickled out in the Australian media that the International Whaling Comission that the countries of the International Whaling Comission, led by Australia, are considering expanding Japan's quota for whaling in the North Pacific. Australia's government, a member of the commission, has denied the reports but evidence seems to be mounting that some sort of offer was made to the Japanese.

Could the harpoon be making a comeback?

(Hat tip: TD)

Photo: DAVID BROOKS/AFP/Getty Images