Davos Diary 2008

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Further proof that blogging is injurious to your plans to enjoy Davos: Having sent off my previous post after 3 a.m., I awoke too late to show up at a UNICEF panel with the former child soldier Ismail Beah, whose bestselling memoir has just come under attack from a section of the Australian media. Last night, with my blogging duties in mind, I managed to forget the Google After-Hours Party, a much sought-after event where the likes of Bono, Bill Gates, and Tony Blair hobnob with the regular pass-holders. So this will definitely be my last post: In future years, if I return, it will be to enjoy myself fully rather than enlighten the cognoscenti.

The last full day of the Forum, Saturday, began to show a slight slackening of the pace, as many attendees started bidding farewell to Davos. (The official closing is on Sunday, with a final session expected to attract so few that it has been shifted from the plenary Congress Hall to a smaller room, and a lunch in the mountains, both of which are likely to be feel-good events and neither of which I intend to blog about.) There was a strong session on the global economic outlook, which nonetheless only confirmed that the outlook is mixed and that economic forecasting is usually slightly less reliable than meteorology.

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I attended one of the prestige private events, a lunch with the Japanese prime minister (who had flown down to Davos in the midst of a regular session of his country's parliament, the Diet, something that in the previous 37 years had only been done once by any of his predecessors). But the number of empty seats at the half-dozen tables around the PM testified to the declining salience of Japan, a country that two decades ago was seen as the world's economic powerhouse and, bluntly, no longer is.

Otherwise, it was a day of conversations—some accidental, some planned—with a host of friends from the multilateral world: Juan Somavia, the head of the International Labor Organization, EU Commissioner Peter Mandelson, Amnesty International Secretary General Irene Khan, former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo of the Yale Center on Globalization, and my old U.N. colleagues Zohreh Tabatabai and Nick Van Praag. Talking to these dedicated servants of the international system was itself a reminder of how little Davos had focused this year on multilateral institutions, once seen at the Forum as the foundation of global cooperation and now largely treated as somewhere between an irrelevance and an afterthought.

So, how would I wrap up this week's experience of Davos? A few observations, not meant to be comprehensive:

• The Forum remains, above all, a networking event. People come to meet and be met, and officials as well as executives expressed satisfaction with the large number of private and "bilateral" meetings they were able to hold in Davos. By this yardstick, the Forum was a success—as it always is.
• The panels were, as usual, of varying quality, with world-class speakers and a few slightly off their game. The scheduling—a huge challenge—meant that no one could really attend everything they'd have liked to, because each interesting panel clashed with another interesting panel.
• Some of the topics chosen were of limited interest, and some of the omissions surprising ones. There was surprisingly little discussion of U.S. politics in a presidential election year—and few American political figures were present. The first few days, thanks to the gyrations in the financial markets, prompted an excessive degree of short-termism in the conversation, which was unfortunate for an event that likes to think of itself as taking the grand and long view of the really important trends in the world.
• In my opening post, I mentioned I'd pay attention to India. There was an extraordinary number of Indians present. The movers and shakers from the worlds of business and politics ranged from the finance minister to the CEOs of all the top information technology companies. But what struck me was the extent to which India is now taken for granted at Davos, in a good way. There's scarcely a panel without an Indian on it, and most discussions of world affairs—economic or geopolitical—witnessed several mentions of India. This Forum afforded confirmation, if any were needed, that my homeland has truly arrived at Davos. It no longer needs any special effort to promote itself to this audience.
• I also promised to look at the attention paid to poverty and development. Some years ago, a World Social Forum was created as a challenge the World Economic Forum. This was the first year in nearly a decade that there wasn't a rival gathering proclaiming that "another world is possible." This is at least partly because Davos has quietly taken on board the same slogan, as this year's Forum demonstrated. The discussions of development and corporate social responsibility have reached a level of seriousness that can only be applauded by an old U.N. hand like me. Of course, action must follow and results have to be visible, but both are beginning to be seen, and the companies and political leaders at the Forum are in many cases responsible for that positive trend.

Finally—as the debris of the extensive Bahrain-sponsored lunch is cleared away and preparations begin for tonight's concert and the black-tie Gala Soirée—it is time to reflect on those peculiar habits of Davos Man (and Woman) that they will have to struggle to shed when they fly away from this snow-capped wonderland. These include, but are not limited to:

• The Davos bend-and-bob: the peculiar movement required to stretch your smart-card badge to one of the ubiquitous scanners that determine whether you can be granted entry, whether you can read your e-mail, and whether you can attend a session for which you may have forgotten to register.

• The furtive chest glance: The quick darting movement of the eye toward the dangling badge that sports a participant's name, which usually precedes a familiar exclamation of pleasure at meeting its wearer, whose identity you had completely forgotten until you saw his or her badge. (Davos is the only place where it is completely socially acceptable, when you meet a woman, to look quickly at her chest first. The operative adverb is "quickly.")

Enough amateur anthropology. Now for the real thing—time to don my glad rags and get ready for the Gala Soirée, which begins at 9 p.m. and goes into the wee hours—a veritable smorgasbord of food, drink, music and last-minute networking. Your faithful blogger relinquishes his keyboard at last. Ladies and gentlemen, it's been a pleasure.

Shashi Tharoor, a former Under Secretary General of the United Nations, was India's candidate in the 2006 race to succeed Kofi Annan as Secretary General and came second out of seven contenders. He is the award-winning author of 10 books, most recently The Elephant, the Tiger and the Cellphone: Reflections on India in the 21st Century. Visit him at www.shashitharoor.com.

You can find Tharoor's previous Diary entries here or at the following links:

• Davos Diary, Day 5: Never tempt Providence
• Day 4: Fatigue can't stop this blogger
• Day 3: Panels galore
• Day 2: Snowy arrival
• Day 1: Setting the scene

An improvident editor at FP placed a hubristic headline on my last post: "Fatigue can't stop this blogger."

Never tempt Providence. Fatigue did stop this blogger Friday morning. Or maybe just plain laziness.

After four nights of minimal sleep, my body decided it didn't want to catch a 7 a.m. bus from Klosters to listen to President Musharraf assure a hot-ticket breakfast crowd that the fate of Pakistani democracy was safe in his hands. It went a step further and decided it could do without a serious discussion on Corporate Global Citizenship in the 21st Century, featuring British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Cisco Systems CEO John T. Chambers, and PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi.

JOEL SAGET/AFP/Getty Images

When I finally stirred myself and trudged out on a surprisingly sunny morning, the Klosters to Davos shuttle bus, supposedly scheduled at 20-minute intervals, took 35 minutes to arrive. Two fellow passengers were raving about the panel I'd just missed. Ever the diligent blogger, I pulled out my notepad: "What did they say?" An abashed silence followed. "I don't really recall," one attendee confessed. "Queen Rania of Jordan was seated right in the middle and I just looked at her the whole time."

I eventually surmised that the panelists had agreed that it made business sense for corporations to make social responsibility a priority. They've been saying that for years at Davos, of course, but this time there was an added flourish: Indra Nooyi declared that philanthropy had "unleashed the emotions" of PepsiCo's employees. Brown and Chambers agreed that customers are not just supportive, they are demanding that corporations become more socially and environmentally aware.

When I finally got to the Forum, I decided to pass up the Ukrainian lunch to which I'd been invited by Viktor Pinchuk, a son-in-law of ex-President Leonid Kuchma whose invitations had remained highly popular with the Davos glitterati (he was also the host of the relocated philanthropic round table I'd missed yesterday, on that occasion for no fault of mine). My choice was clear: the risk of long speeches on Ukraine versus a chance to catch up on the Davos buzz. The latter was useful, because it helped me realize that in attending only the panels that interested me I'd steered clear of what all the business journalists were focusing on: the loss by the French bank Société Générale of the small sum of $7.1 billion, which the bank was blaming on a reckless (and dishonest) trader—Barings all over again, except with more zeroes.

I'd also missed the interminable arguments about whether the world economy was in crisis or not (they don't know any more than you do) and whether it was the fault of the regulators or the speculators (or possibly both). As someone once famously said, if you put all the economists in the world end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion. I have never been a practitioner of the dismal science, so I skipped a BBC debate on global economics (though I commend it unseen to those who care, if only because its moderator, my friend Nik Gowing, knows how to keep an argument moving). And I returned to the topics that interested me.

Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Just as well, because I caught two terrific panels back to back, which doesn't always happen in Davos. The first, on Indian innovation, was stimulating and educative, and it was attended (judging by the badges of the questioners) by a surprisingly large number of Davos spouses who had actually traveled or worked in India. The second was even better: a first-rate discussion on what could have been too well-worn a subject—development. Despite the absence of the advertised Kofi Annan (on a mediation trip in Kenya rather than on the stage in Davos), the panel featured Gordon Brown, Bill Gates, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, and the chairman of both Unilever and Ericsson, Michael Treschow, all ably moderated by PepsiCo's Indra Nooyi. The conversation managed to be both thoughtful and wide-ranging: In the span of an hour, the heavyweights spoke of skill-building and education, corruption and good governance, the empowerment of women, African agriculture, mobile telephony and entrepreneurship (and a lot else besides). Though the focus was principally on Africa—as if other regions don't still have major development challenges to overcome—it was a first-rate conversation, Brown especially coming off as an insightful and committed leader on the issue. If the British voters ever tire of him, he should be put in charge of a global development agency.

I managed to make an appearance at three of the six receptions to which I'd been invited (the fact that two were at the same hotel helped) before arriving at my dinner panel. I'd groaned at the topic—"The Rise of the Multicultural Couple"—and at first sight I was convinced this was going to be a disaster. There were five speakers, six paying dinner guests, and four Forum staff around the table. But it turned out to be a delightful discussion, covering inter-religious marriage, the case for cosmopolitanism, and even an exchange about the neurological consequences of falling in love. That Davos still retains the capacity to put on a panel like that humanizes the place.

Since yesterday's format appears to have won some approbation, I'll end with a few notes from the events I attended:

Most intriguing facts I learned about India today:

• One hundred fifty of the Fortune 500 companies have established R&D operations in India.
• In 2002, more people traveled by train in one day in India than by plane in an entire year.
• Of the 300 million children in India between the ages of 6 and 16 today, 270 million will reach adulthood without the benefit of a formal education.

Swiss Image/World Economic Forum

Most irrelevant observations about Davos: The "no-tie" rule proclaimed by founder Klaus Schwab, in an effort to preserve the informality of the Forum, is honored by the corporate types but not by the officials. At the development panel, Brown sported a splendid purple tie, Manuel a vivid red one, and Zoellick a drab navy tie. Far worse sartorially is the number of women wearing high heeled shoes and stiletto boots amidst the snow and the ice. How do they do it, one is tempted to marvel. But more to the point: Why do they do it?

Most memorable corridor confabs: I greeted my old friend Carl Bildt, the foreign minister of Sweden, most warmly, and only after a few minutes realized whom I'd interrupted him chatting with. It was the Duke of York. Davos rules prevent further indiscretion about the subsequent conversation, but even a staunch republican like me doesn't treat running into royalty lightly.

Most quotable one-liners:

• "Economics has made us interdependent and politics divides us. We need to bring our politics in line with our economics." –Trevor Manuel, finance minister of South Africa
• "The most significant breakthrough innovations are made out of fear." –Sunil Bharti Mittal, CEO of Bharti Airtel, India's largest telecom company
• "Cosmopolitans are rich; evangelicals are poor." –David McWilliams, Irish entrepreneur

Shashi Tharoor, a former Under Secretary General of the United Nations, was India's candidate in the 2006 race to succeed Kofi Annan as Secretary General and came second out of seven contenders. He is the award-winning author of 10 books, most recently The Elephant, the Tiger and the Cellphone: Reflections on India in the 21st Century. Visit him at www.shashitharoor.com.

You can find Tharoor's previous Diary entries here or at the following links:

• Day 4: Fatigue can't stop this blogger
• Day 3: Panels galore
• Day 2: Snowy arrival
• Day 1: Setting the scene

FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images

It's well past midnight in the Bidwell-Azarm apartment in Klosters as I sit down to review another long day at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Last night, I got to bed at 2:45 a.m. after giving you all a blow-by-blow(hard) account of all the panels I went to. Since I woke up three hours later and have staggered through the day, I'm going to be a lot more telegraphic about Thursday. In fact, I'm going to summarize the day in a different style altogether, just for a change. (If there are enough protests, I'll return to prose reporting on Friday). Herewith, my day in 10 easy points:

1. Misfires:

• Didn't register in time for the Tom Friedman-Al Gore double bill on climate change, which was sold out within minutes of being available for sign-up.

• Arrived at a scheduled lunch panel featuring George Soros and Walter Isaacson on philanthropy after a 15-minute journey and discovered they'd moved the venue to another hotel and neglected to inform the attendees. Unexpected bonus: Joined a lunch discussion on the water crisis around the world instead. Cloud attached to silver lining: Had to pay 90 Swiss francs, almost $75 now, for my salad.

2. Morning panel highlights: Fascinating discussion on peace and stability featuring four beleaguered Muslim leaders: President Karzai of Afghanistan, President Musharraf of Pakistan, "Chief Adviser" (de facto Prime Minister) of Bangladesh Fakhruddin Ahmed, and Deputy Prime Minister Bahram Salih of Iraq. All inveighed against terrorism and extremism, defended the ways in which their countries were run and sought the world's help in promoting economic growth and political stability in their lands. Musharraf proved the ablest at swatting back tough questions; Karzai at ducking them. Asked (by me) what exactly he meant when he said that in his region extremism had been a "tool of policy," and whether this related to his previously expressed view that terrorism was being exported his way from across his border with Pakistan, Karzai replied, "Mr. Tharoor, I have just had a good visit with President Musharraf. I'm not going to say any more."

3. Panel disappointments: A bland performance by Musharraf in a hugely attended double-bill with Henry Kissinger, who was supposed to ask him three questions but tossed him two softballs instead. Musharraf repeated the points he'd just made at the previous panel.

4. Afternoon panel highlights: A first-rate discussion on the perils of Internet terrorism, featuring such heavy hitters as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Britain's Leader of the Opposition David Cameron, head of Human Rights Watch Kenneth Roth, and feisty Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid. Lots of pithy insight about the use of cyberspace to recruit terrorists and to wage war, plus a side argument about the definition of terrorism and whether Israel was shooting itself in the foot by denouncing even attacks on its soldiers, not just civilians, as terrorist attacks.

5. Afternoon panel disappointments: A wasted hour-long Middle East panel chaired by Tony Blair and oddly featuring three Israelis (President Shimon Peres, Foreign Minister Livni and Defense Minister Barak) and only one Palestinian (Prime Minister Salam Fayyad). Not one person from this impressive galaxy said a single thing we hadn't heard before, and the audience wasn't allowed to ask questions.

6. Dinner panel: I found myself speaking on whether "globalization = cultural homogenization," along with the likes of Québec Premier Jean Charest, London Mayor Ken Livingstone, genius cellist Yo-Yo Ma and the CEO of Burger King. We all agreed that it doesn't, but had fun coming up with ideas and anecdotes about cultural diversity.

7. Uneven discussions: First, the water panel, an interesting but complicated topic that had been discussed earlier in the Forum and which left me feeling I'd walked in halfway through a suspense movie and couldn't quite figure out the plot. Second, a discussion on "Brand America" with impressive panelists (starting with Rupert Murdoch) and chaired by FP's own Moisés Naím, which nonetheless went all over the place—including a bizarre attack on the United Nations by Murdoch, supported by a Bahraini royal—rather than focusing on its declared purpose of devising recommendations to the next U.S. President on how to improve America's global image.

8. Memorable informal encounters: An animated conversation on the margins with the top leaders of Bangladesh's interim government, and another at the Tata reception with two of India's more impressive cabinet ministers. Also a chat with Bombay society maven Parmeshwar Godrej, currently under pressure from Muslim fundamentalists to apologize for having hosted Salman Rushdie at her home, who is refusing to buckle under despite threats of a boycott of her company's products.

9. One-liners of the day:

• "I don't agree with the notion of Brand America. A country is not a brand and cannot be sold." – French ad tycoon Maurice Lévy

• "Foreign Minister Livni has just told me her parents were arrested by the British. Being prime minister of Britain means having to go around the world apologizing to everybody." – Tony Blair, looking remarkably unapologetic

• "As a business journalist, I feel like I've gone hunting with Dick Cheney and some sidekick has just released all the pheasants in front of me so I can't miss them." – reporter marveling at the availability of quoteworthy CEOs in every hallway

10. Change of plan: Thanks to the lateness of the hour and President Musharraf's repeating himself in the two sessions I've heard him on already, I'll skip a breakfast with him organized by a Pakistani businessman Friday morning. Midway through the Forum, and particularly at the end of a Davos day featuring six panels, three breakfasts, two lunches, four receptions, and a blog diary to maintain, my borrowed bed looks a lot more inviting than a 7 a.m. bus from Klosters. Good night...

PIERRE VERDY/AFP/Getty Images

The first real day of the formal Forum got off to a lively start Wednesday morning with a panel on the geopolitics of a divided world. At least it did for me: There were several other panels to choose from. Selecting which of six or seven alternative (and parallel) panels to attend is the most difficult thing you can do in Davos (other than learning to suffer silently through security). It's possible for two people to spend the same week here and experience two entirely different Forums.

But a divided world is one of my concerns, so I made a beeline for that session (assuming that bees negotiate paths involving makeshift temporary passageways, wood-plank paths, tent-flaps, and multiple floors). The shuttle from my home base in Klosters was late, but that meant shorter security lines, since the majority of participants follow Swiss norms of punctuality and throng the airport-style scanners early in time for the first panels.

By the time I snuck in, the discussion had warmed up nicely. There was much intelligent talk about the changing world that will confront the next American president, and thoughtful concern about the need to restore U.S. soft power — defined by a panelist as America's reputation for legitimacy and competence internationally, both categories in which it has suffered under the Bush administration. A senior Chinese participant (I'm trying to honor Davos's non-attribution policies here) argued convincingly that China has no interest in promoting any division in the world: "It's our first chance since the Opium Wars of the 1840s to develop and modernize our country, and all we want is peace, not confrontation anywhere in the world." Reacting to comments about China's lack of democracy, he pointed out to the Americans (and the Frenchman) present that neither country had given the vote to women until the 1920s, and the United States had denied it to many blacks until the 1960s. "Give us time, too," he said, adding for good measure, "And don't expect us to be like you."

An Indian strategic analyst pointed out that power and influence are not the same thing: the United States is the world's sole superpower but its influence is on the wane, and the need for coalition-building is increasing. He dismissed the moderator's talk of "Chindia" — a convergence between India and China—by tartly observing that the two countries do not share norms and values. In today's world, he pointed out, economic interdependence has nothing to do with political closeness—an intriguing insight given that China will overtake the United States as India's largest trading partner in the next two years. The moderator observed in closing that the panel had featured the rare spectacle of a Chinese offering lessons in democracy and an American offering lessons in humility!

Swiss Image/World Economic Forum

It was snowing in Davos Tuesday as I drove to my base for the week, the cozy Klosters apartment of my New York friends Truman Bidwell and Mariam Azarm. Traffic thickened on the icy roads, and I nearly failed to make it on time for my first panel, a session with the “Young Global Leaders” (YGLs) of the “Asian Century.” This panel was not quite Davos, since the World Economic Forum officially begins Wednesday and since this panel was taking place not in Davos but in Klosters, 20 minutes away. But it was also very much in what the Forum likes to call “the spirit of Davos.”

The YGLs are the latest iteration of what the Forum used to hail as “Global Leaders of Tomorrow,” bright overachievers under 40 who have already shown the kind of promise that makes their prospects of leadership a fairly safe bet. There were 120 YGLs assembled in Klosters to hear three Indians and a Singaporean of Indian origin discuss whether the “Asian Century” was fact or fiction. The debate was lively enough, and the questions from the YGLs (two of whom identified themselves as parliamentarians) flowed fast-but-not-furious, so the session ran comfortably over the allotted 90 minutes. Some predictable things were said, but some startling insights emerged as well, and the panelists’ metaphors became increasingly inventive.

India’s minister of commerce and industry, Kamal Nath, deserved a prize for this one: “We were passengers on the [global economic] bus; we didn’t drive it, we didn’t make the bus, and we had no idea where it was going. Now we want to control the steering wheel and choose the right road.” Or on shared responsibility for climate change: “We’re not at the head table, but we have the same menu.” Nath has just published a book called India’s Century, and fellow panelist Kishore Mahbubani, dean of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, has one coming out titled The New Asian Hemisphere. Perhaps they now need to do another panel titled “The Indian Hemisphere”!

Swiss Image/World Economic Forum

I spent the rest of the afternoon getting organized, taking the bus to Davos to register and pick up the Forum briefcase, which was loaded to the gills with conference materials and most important of all, the indispensable badge without which movement anywhere in Davos this week would be impossible. The badge hasn’t changed much in appearance since I first came here 11 years ago, but it’s acquired the properties of a “smart card” now and stores all sorts of information, from your photograph to the sessions you’ve signed up for. It’s color-coded (participants wear a white one, aides get green, spouses pink, staff blue), and participants of ministerial rank are further identified by a shiny disc.

The caste system in Davos is an elaborate one, the various gradations of privilege governing levels of access to panels, rooms, and facilities. That was as I remembered it; but what has undoubtedly worsened, in terms of both ubiquity and pointlessness, is security. There were more security personnel around than participants, and they specialized in the unnecessary restrictions so beloved of security people everywhere: You could not alight from a vehicle except where they said you could; you could not walk on a certain side of the street; and you had to take your jackets off and go through a metal detector every time you passed the Congress Center, even if you didn’t want to go in. I nearly missed the last shuttle bus home to Klosters because the walk to the bus stop went past the center and I was obliged to make a detour to be frisked. Only security people can explain the logic of stopping a person hurrying down the street in order to oblige him to go where he doesn’t need to so that you can scan his body parts for weapons he wouldn’t have had a chance to use if you hadn’t stopped him in the first place.

Swiss Image/World Economic Forum

The first of Davos’s plethora of receptions took place on Tuesday, the welcome reception hosted by the genial Prof. Schwab, who had started it all back in 1971. Old friends were hailed, new acquaintances made and soon forgot. Participants milled about in a swirling, eddying throng, badges hanging obligatorily from their necks, while waiters circulated with trays of canapés, mainly featuring dried meat. Some of the guests may well have felt like dried meat themselves, as others stole surreptitious glances at the names and colors on their badges to decide if their wearers were worth talking to or not (most often not). The only cheerful faces at the reception seemed to belong to those who had got out of the stock market before the current nose dive.

The World Economic Forum doesn't officially start until Wednesday, but I have already slipped and fallen on the ice once, been searched three times, and lost a glove somewhere in the slush. It can only get better.