Hugh Collins's blog

When dirt-poor Mexicans took to the streets in February to decry the rising cost of tortillas, they got barely a flicker of interest north of the border. But now the soaring prices of foodstuffs—corn, oils, wheat, you name it—are hitting the people with real power: western consumers and multinational corporations. Today's Financial Times reports that Hershey's, manufacturers of sickly-sweet American chocolate, has slashed its profit forecast due to prohibitively expensive milk. Few will shed a tear for Hershey's shareholders, but the plot thickens: from China to the the U.K., the price of food is growing at nearly twice the rate of overall inflation.

That's bad news for everyone, but there is a silver lining. If grocery bills continue to balloon, many in Europe and the US.. might wonder why their tax dollars should go towards subsidizing inefficient domestic farmers and keeping out the cheap produce of agricultural powerhouses like Brazil. This could be more than food for thought; it could be fuel for action.

Does seizing private property, centralizing the economy, and jailing opposition activists mean that democracy in Russia is in trouble? Not according to Vladimir Putin. He reckons Western observers just need to adopt the famously sunny Russian disposition:

What is pure democracy? It is a question of ... whether you want to see the glass half-full or half empty."

AFP

NATO is considering sending its armed forces to protect oil and gas facilities in the developing world. Jamie Shea, director of policy planning at the office of NATO's secretary general, made the announcement at a press conference in London earlier today. 

[W]e are looking very actively at using our maritime resources... [NATO wants to see] how we can link up with oil companies."

Shea revealed that NATO had discussed the idea with private oil companies such as Dutch Royal Shell and British Petroleum (BP), the second and third largest western oil firms respectively. He also admitted to raising the idea of NATO forces protecting natural gas facilities in Qatar.

On the list of bad ideas in world relations, this ranks pretty high. When the people of a desperately poor nation (such as Nigeria) see western firms leeching their nation's mineral wealth away, they tend to draw a simple conclusion: These companies are heartless profit-seekers with no regard for human life or welfare. Sending NATO forces to protect such corporations would cement the perception that western countries care only about securing energy supplies. After all, we've tried this experiment before; the whole concept harks back to the disastrous gunboat diplomacy of the 19th century. Think again, Mr Shea!

Uriel Sinai/Getty Images

Global climate change will create one billion refugees by 2050, according to a report released today. The paper, written by charity organization Christian Aid, assumes that the world will heat up by between 1.8 and 3.0 degrees Celsius over that time, giving rise to apocalyptic floods and famines that will starve and displace millions. The result? "A world of many more Darfurs," as refugees are caught between devastated homes and hostile populations elsewhere who have no desire to share precious resources.

These internally displaced persons, or IDPs, have no rights under international law and no official voice .... Their living conditions are likely to be desperate and in many cases their lives will be in danger."

The prospect of multiple Darfurs is horrifying. But if Christian Aid think this is a call to action, they're dreaming. We all know what's happening in Darfur. Thus far the response from the West has been precisely zero. And no matter what you multiply zero by, the answer is always the same. The sad fact is that for all the hot air exhaled about climate change, it is little more today than global debt relief was two years ago—a platform to help politicians appear sensitive. Only when the consequences of global warming pinch the world's middle classes will action be taken. By then, I'm sorry to say, it could be too late for the IDPs.

ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson talks to his Chinese counterpart, item #1 on the agenda is usually the Chinese currency, the yuan. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) keeps the yuan weak to promote Chinese exports, and many in the United States have cried foul. But keeping the yuan cheap has not been easy. The PBOC has had to accumulate a vast quantity of foreign exchange to back its currency and prevent the floods of foreign money from turning China into an inflation-ridden nightmare.

But as any entrepreneur will tell you, saving money for a rainy day is no way to turn a profit. And with over a trillion dollars gathering dust in the PBOC's vaults, China is ready to spend. At the beginning of March, China's finance minister announced that a new agency was in the works that would invest at least $200 billion of these idle funds in companies and assets abroad. From Asian stocks to African railways, the country has plenty of options, but every dollar spent is a risk taken—and China is learning that throwing money around can earn you hatred as well as gratitude.

Check out what's on China's shopping list in this week's List.

LUIS ACOSTA/AFP

As noted in this morning's Brief, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe heads to Washington this week to fight for a U.S. aid package and to rebut unsubstantiated charges—apparently deemed credible by no less than former U.S. Vice President Al Gore—that he has had ties to paramilitary death squads.

Back at home, he's got plenty of other worries. Twelve kidnapped Colombian lawmakers recently issued an emotional plea to Uribe to initiate talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The officials, who are being held in the Colombian jungle along with hundreds of other civilian victims, delivered their message by video. It was the first sign they are alive in over a year. Families wept as they watched their loved ones speak directly to the president, urging him to agree to the rebels' conditions for their release. Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos told the press:

If they [the FARC] want an agreement we are willing to do this even by telephone ... But they insist on the demilitarization of [the towns of] Florida and Pradera, which is the bottle neck in all of this."

President Uribe, whose father was killed by the FARC 20 years ago, is in a tight spot. He has achieved considerable economic and security success with a tough, militaristic approach to the FARC. Now his opponents have put him in a position where he must show his humane side. It's a smart move on their part. The FARC have personalized their message, disguising the fact that it's the cocaine trade—in which Florida and Pradera are key locations—that fuels their struggle, not popular support.

Let's hope Uribe shows equal brains when measuring his response, and doesn't let the fate of 12 government officials outweigh the future of 45 million inhabitants.

JUAN BARRETO/AFP

Thousands of Venezuelans staged a rally in Caracas in Saturday to protest against the closure of Radio Caracas Television. The demonstrators braved heavy security (and a counter rally staged by Chavez supporters) to object to President Hugo Chavez's decision not to renew the broadcasting license of Venezuela's oldest TV station, which expires on May 28. Chavez announced the decision in December, describing the station as "against the people, against the nation, against the dignity of the Republic." He was referring to the channel's decision to ignore the street protests that ended the abortive 2002 coup against Chavez, and to broadcast movies and cartoons instead. Critics of Chavez say he wants to gag the voice of the opposition, and send a warning to other media.

For Chavez to punish anyone for their "coupism" (as he calls it) is laughable. He himself first came to public attention as the leader of the disastrous 1992 coup against President Perez. Chavez was treated well then; he spent a few years in prison, and by 1998 was back on the streets exercising his democratic right to run for president. But having benefited from such rights, Chavez won't hesitate to do away with them now. Protests or no, he will scrap Radio Caracas Television, and make sure that anyone with access to the airwaves is singing a Chavista tune.

This protest demonstrated Chavez doesn't have full support of the Venezuelan people. His decision regarding Radio Caracas Television will show just how little he cares.

AFP

Tensions are rising in Tarija, a southern state of Bolivia, in a dispute over the lucrative Margarita gas field. A judge ruled yesterday that the field (operated by Spanish energy giant Repsol) lay within the O'Connor province, enraging inhabitants of rival province Gran Chaco, who claimed the field as their own. The conflict  has already turned ugly—highlights included the kidnap of 70 police—and the ruling will only make things worse. Worryingly, the authorities seem to be in on the scrap. The feds in La Paz insist this is a local dispute, and that it's up to Governor Mario Cossio to solve it. For his part, Cossio says La Paz has let the problem fester to punish Tarija for its push towards regional autonomy:

The government acted to bring pressure on this departmental government and damage it... The only crime [the region] has committed it that it does not share the government's ideological vision of the country and that it represents one of the autonomous regions of Bolivia."

Whatever La Paz says, the buck must stop with President Evo Morales. Resolving such confrontations are the stuff presidencies are made of, and it's time that Evo and his cabinet showed their worth. Race and politics divide Bolivia, and huge gas reserves (the Margarita field alone is worth $45m, in a country where the average income is $3000) provide the perfect bone of contention. If the President can't mediate between warring factions, then he isn't worth a damn to his country.

May 1 will mark the first anniversary of the nationalization of the Bolivian gas industry. Now Morales has to prove he can distribute, as well as seize.