Monday, April 20, 2009 - 3:12 PM
In this weekend's Washington Post, columnist George Will penned an Op-Ed on Russia's deteriorating demographics. The main target of the article was President Obama's offer to renew nuclear arms cuts -after all, why should the world's only superpower negotiate with a nation that may not even exist in fifty years? Will may or may not be right in this assertion, but he is certainly correct about Russia's population crisis.
It's amazing to consider that despite its gargantuan size, today's Russia is only two thirds the size of the Russian empire in 1866 (which included Alaska, Finland, most of Poland, parts of China, and all of the former Soviet Union). So in reality, Russia has been shrinking for over 100 years. Still, since the destruction of the Golden Horde in the 15th century, the Russian heartland has been predominately Slavic. The immigration of workers from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the Caucasus will soon change this. Not only do these new immigrants have bigger and more stable families, but while the Slavic population of Russia suffers from drug and alcohol abuse, the predominately Muslim workers manage to largely avoid this scourge. FP covered this trend in 2007 and two years later there are no signs of reversal.
Equally important is what's happening in Russia's remote Far East (RFE). Since 1989 the population of the RFE, an area almost the size of all of China, declined by over 15% and now stands at 6.5 million. Meanwhile, just across the Amur river is China's Heilongjiang province with a population of 108 million. Anatoly Karlin is right in arguing that this disparity doesn't mean that conflict is inevitable, but the recent gang fights in Vladivostok, maritime disputes, and the proliferation of Chinese Triads throughout the RFE, have brought ethnic tensions to a boiling point. Rife corruption and Moscow's disregard of the region doesn't help either.
Moscow and Beijing ostensibly promote their strategic partnership, but both sides are very aware of the geopolitical situation. While Dmitry Medvedev warns of Russia losing the entire Far East, the lebensraum-esque term "Great Northern Virgin Land" has appeared in Chinese Communist Party literature.
The long-term trends are not in Moscow's favor, but it's highly unlikely that Kremlin will go down without a fight. Wouldn't it better for everyone if this fight didn't involve nukes?
Thursday, April 16, 2009 - 2:31 PM

Last week, Evgeny Morozov explored President Medvedev's love for gadgets, coming to the conclusion that he is a "geek-in-chief". But judging from his recent interview with Novaya Gazetta, the last remaining Russian publication that is openly critical of the Kremlin, Medvedev is also a huge nerd. (Click here to see the difference between the two).
For instance, here is Medvedev's take on Hume and Rousseau:
The conceptualization of the Social Contract is one of the brightest human ideas in history. It is an idea that has played a significant role in the establishment of democratic institutions throughout the world. It is well known that the sources of this conceptualization stem from Rousseau, but if we are to discuss the modern reading of this social contract, that I would say that this conceptualization is rooted in our (Russian) constitution.“The entire political system exists solely for the purpose of allowing judges to interpret trials without interference”. David Hume said this on the topic of judicial independence.
Sound unusually intellectual and liberal? Get a load of Medvedev's opinion on internet regulation:
The internet is not just one of few forums, but in my opinion, the best method for public discussions, and not only in our country, but in general, because nothing more significant, nothing more active in allowing for direct communications has ever been invented.
Wow! No wonder Putin chose him as his successor. This guy is the next Gandhi! Well, not so fast. When it comes to those pesky bureaucrats, Medvedev's authoritarian side shines through:
Q) Have you personally felt the negative reaction of bureaucrats? Or did these officials respond with understanding on your decision to disclose their incomes?A) You know, the office of the president absolves me from having to listen to the negative reaction of bureaucrats. I made a decision – they have to obey it.
It will be interesting to see just how this interview reflects on the hypothetical struggle between Putin and Medvedev. In case you're wondering, Putin is more of a jock.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009 - 5:25 PM
Gathering over 50 percent of the vote, Moldova's Communist Party (PCRM) won a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections on Sunday. Interestingly, until this election Moldova was the only state in Europe where clinging to the Communist brand remained politically expedient. In fact, since Moldova declared independence in 1990 the PCRM has never relinquished power. However, today's violent protests have shown that over the last decade a socio-political chasm between young and urban voters and the elderly and rural has split Moldovan society.
It's important to note that the PCRM's platform, based on such Marxist notions as encouraging entrepreneurship, attracting foreign direct investment, and protecting human rights, isn't really all that Communist. Unlike other nominally Communist parties, the PCRM doesn't even pay lip service to Communist principles and openly advocates seeking closer socio-economic relations with Europe. Their key difference with the Liberals is that the Communists are wary of reunification with Romania, a country with which Moldova shares historical and linguistic ties
The wide margin of victory provides the PCRM with a clear mandate to pursue its proposed policy of closer integration with Europe, but as Moldova expert Elizabeth Anderson pointed out, its many years in power has left the Communist Party over-institutionalized and corrupt. The next Moldovan president will have to tread lightly, institute reforms within his own party, and try to build coalitions with the minority parties in parliament. Otherwise, Moldova risks falling into the same kind of vicious cycle that neighboring Ukraine has experienced since the Orange revolution in 2004.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 5:58 PM

This morning Kommersant reported (in Russian) that a prominent council of religious associations will, for the first time, be chaired by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The decision represents a major victory for the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and is another sign of the church's increasing influence over the Russian state.
The Kremlin is seeking church support as a rapidly disintegrating economy has fueled internal dissent. The newly annointed Patriarch, Kirill, is believed to be more liberal and politically ambitious than his predecessor and may become a major player in the Russian government.
Still, Russia's troubled record on religious tolerance makes the prospect of a closer relationship between church and state a troubling one for religious minorities.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 - 3:13 PM

Considering that their states are still technically at war, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso got along remarkably well during their summit meeting in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on Wednesday. While palling around on Sakhalin Island at the opening of a new $22 billion LNG plant (the first such plant in Russia), Aso and Medvedev praised the economic cooperation that has helped Russia and Japan strengthen their relationship over the past ten years.
Annual trade has now reached $30 billion, tripling in size since 2004. The first phase of the massively expensive ESPO pipeline, connecting oil reserves in Siberia with Russia's Pacific coast, has been completed and the construction of phase two has been announced. This is rare good news for two economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global financial crisis.
But it's still not all smiles between the two countries. The violent reaction of Vladivostok's workers to the imposition of a tariff on Japanese vehicles in late December displays the importance of Japanese commerce to Russia's remote Far East provinces. More seriously,a Japanese ship carrying ¥12.8 million worth of medical aid at the request of Russian residents on the disputed Kuril Islands was turned away in January because the Japanese delegation refused to show disembarkation cards, a move that the Japanese consider tantamount to recognizing Russian sovereignty over the Kurils. T
The Japanese claim that the Kuril islands -currently under Russian control - are historically Japanese and were seized illegally by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. The dispute over the islands has prevented Russia and Japan from signing a peace treaty and officially ending the war.
Until the Kuril issue is resolved, Japan and Russia will continue to be in the contradictory position of building ever closer ties while still officially fighting World War II.
NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP/Getty Images
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