Davide Berretta's blog

The release of the Pentagon's annual report to Congress on China's military power has become an event in itself. It is the occasion for China hawks to play out their well-rehearsed outrage at the US letting China build up its military, and for Chinese generals to balk at the US's interference with Chinese domestic affairs. As the folks over at Defense Tech note, hawks will dig through the report for the most scary sounding piece of equipment the Chinese have purchased this year, while the generals will relay the most belligerent criticisms back home, in order to perpetuate their vision of America as a trigger-happy cowboy nation.

What the debate really comes down to is whether China's rise will be peaceful or it will lead to a clash with the current hegemon, the US. That's as big a question as they come, and it seems reasonable to take the long view on this kind of debate: Three years ago, an independent task-force commissioned by the always reliable Council on Foreign Relations reported that China is at least two decades away from rivaling US military might. 20-3 still makes 17 years on my calculator, which sounds like a reasonable time frame to craft a sensible and sophisticated policy that will bring out the best in China, while keeping the worst at bay.

In the meantime, it makes sense to read up on the news informing us about cooperation rather than listening to those harping about confrontation.

The FT's foreign correspondents today listed the most influential columnist of the country they write from, each with a brief two-paragraph description. Most columnists are local celebrities and virtually unknown in the US: but some of their descriptions seemed to fit --in different ways-- some usually unflattering aspect of the national character. 

In France it is Nicolas Bavarez (declinologue), in Australia Alan Jones (middle of the road fascism)  in Russia Mikhail Leontiev (bearded and disheveled), in Iran Hussein Shariatmadari (careful), in China Hu Shuli (scandal lady), in Japan Soichiro Tawara (forthright yet ambiguous) and in South Africa Meletsi Mbeki (brother of the president).

Two surprises: the US's most influential columnist apparently is Charles Krauthhammer, while India's is our man Tom Friedman.

A Saudi woman:

cannot exercise

66 percent of [Saudi] women are either obese or overweight, according to Saudi press reports.

should not be depicted in magazines

There are photographs published in some newspapers ... and one needs to think if he would want his daughter, sister or wife to appear like that. (King Abdullah)

but can finally buy lingerie from a female sales clerk.

Saudi Arabia confirmed on Tuesday women would replace male sales assistants in lingerie shops from next month, ending an awkward anomaly in the ultra-conservative Islamic state.

While Libya is restoring full diplomatic relations with the United States--and finally getting dropped from the State Department’s list of states funding terrorists--Algeria is arranging to pay off all of its outstanding debt ($8 billion) to the Paris Club sometime between June and November this year. Russia is also bargaining its way through full repayment of its $22 billion, and in April, Nigeria finalized the plan to pay off its $30 billion to the Paris Club. That’s $60 billion repaid in less than a month.

So props to Bono for all his hard work Unfortunately, these huge payoffs are not due to booms of  these countries’ economies, good governance or donor generosity: rather, they are about oil. All of these countries have huge reserves and--except for Russia, who still is the second oil exporter after Saudi Arabia--are members of OPEC. While high oil prices might not be good for democracy in unstable nations, they do wonders for foreign cash reserves with which to pay off nations as thirsty for oil--and for good deals for their companies--as those belonging to the Paris club. Now that they are debt-free, expect these countries to pay even less attention to Western rhetoric on democracy and human rights.

The geography of internet users shows a shift away from the US, which supplies less than a quarter of total users aged 14+, down from two thirds a decade ago, reports the IHT.  The total number of woldwide unique internet users is 694 million, without counting the ones connecting from internet cafes and cellphones, says data from this Comscore study which Travis our Assistant Production Manager Becca Yates has kindly charted by country.  

In the debate over how to gear up industrialized societies for globalized markets, Europeans wince at American levels of inequality, while Americans disapprovingly shake their heads at the overbearance of the state in generous Europe, the former being cruel and unjust, the latter being inefficient and doomed to fail. But as the FT reports (subscription required), there is an country that is quietly and unassumingly proving that it's not either/or:

It is a developed country that enjoyed faster economic growth than the US over the past decade. Yet it also offers universal healthcare and other social welfare benefits that the US does not. Unemployment is similar to America’s, but without the glaring income disparities that characterize US growth. It is a country that seems to have achieved a sweet spot, combining the vigor of American capitalism with the humanity of European welfare, yet suffering the drawbacks of neither. And it manages this while keeping a consistent budget surplus. That country, rolling into its 16th year of uninterrupted growth, is Australia.   

Sure enough, part of Australia’s performance can be attributed to the booming of the region and the wealth that a rising China has been funneling into the Pacific markets. But results like these:

The federal government has run a surplus in nine of the past 10 years. Last month it paid off all outstanding federal debt – the federal government is debt-free for the first time since the 1970s.

do not come alone. Just like in Liberia, good governance is key, along with a bipartisan willingness to reform and economic policies tailored specifically to the country. The future looks good too.

It is baffling to see just how much good governance can do for the economy, even in one of the world's poorest and more violence-prone countries (it is #11 on FP's Failed States Index) such as Liberia. Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, Harvard and World Bank alum, whose term as Liberian president started on Jan. 16th, has released Liberia's first financial report in 20 years covering her first three months in office:

Finance ministry authorities said actual revenue generated amounted to US $26.2 million, which is 19 percent higher than projected and more then three times more than the same period last year when the fighting had stopped and a transitional government was in place.

There's more:

Expenditure was also down on last year, said the report, plummeting to "only US $11.3 million compared to US $18.6 million in the last quarter of 2005, which is close to a 40 percent decline." [..]

Liberia's Finance Minister Antoinette Sayeh had more good news for reports on Wednesday when she announced that the International Monetary Fund had endorsed further cooperation with the Liberian government.

• Angelina Jolie: donated more than $3 million to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

• Sandra Bullock: donated $1 million to the American Red Cross and $1 million to tsunami relief efforts.

• Paul and Heather McCartney: donated $1.9 million to tsunami relief efforts, campaigned hard against landmines.

A free copy of the FP memo by Rob Long on How to Use Your Star Power for the first three of these fine gentlemen and women who get to our office.