Elizabeth Dickinson's blog

While much of the Western world is disengaging from risky emerging markets, the BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- are swooping in to take shares in mineral operations, build up diplomatic ties, and feed the growing African commercial market. It's a move guaranteed to win favor for the BRICs from African leaders -- a relationship that will surely outlast recession.

Of greatest scope and interest is, of course, China's interest in Africa. This is nothing new, but what is unexpected is that recession hasn't changed a thing. A report released today by South Africa's Standard Bank (download pdf here) elaborates on some of the reasons that Sino-African relations are going strong: China's decline in growth is nowhere near that of the Western world, the country's "stimulus package" includes massive infrastructure spending that will keep African raw materials in high demand, and China is keen to keep the investment and aid flowing in the run-up to a November 2009 Forum on China Africa Cooperation.

No wonder President Hu Jintao's visit to the continent was so fruitful in February -- including loans to Senegal, aid to Tanzania, infrastructure funding to Mali, cash injection for the transitional government in Zimbabwe, and a number of mining and extraction deals. 

China's not alone. Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev just concluded a trip to the continent, its interest pretty explicit: commodities. Egypt, Nigeria, Angola, and Namibia were the spots he hit. "[Russia was] almost too late in engaging with Africa," Russia Today quoted him saying. "Work with our African partners should have been started earlier...Africa is waiting for our support."

Medvedev's assesment might sound a bit over the top, but I think he has a point. With aid and investment drying up from Europe and the West, it's wise of the BRICs to fill the void. More than good business, it's proof of the BRICs claim that they're in Africa for the long haul. Guess who wins that game?

Update: Case and point -- China offers Zimbabwe a loan of $950m. That kind of kindness will surely be remembered if and when the country (and its rich mines) start booming like they used to...

"Silent killers" in Africa are usually malaria, malnutrition, river blindness, HIV/AIDs...and the list goes on. But recent reports suggest it might be time to add one more, and it's one you might not expect: obesity.

 

"A third of women in urban Kampala and a quarter of the women in more rural central and southwestern Uganda are overweight or obese, according to 2007 government statistics. It is a major paradox since 50 percent of children in southwestern Uganda are malnourished," Derrick Z. Jackson writes in a Boston Globe op-ed.

This does not come as a surprise to me. Go to the prominent markets in cities, or take a drive through the richer neighborhoods in Nigeria, Cameroon, or even Liberia for that matter, and obesity is visible -- if not as prevelant as in the United States, for example. There are no real reliable statistics on obesity in Africa yet (check out how nearly the whole continent lacks data here) but there is a general consensus that the epidemic is growing -- at least among the wealthier. 

In my experience, "fatness" is not bemoaned much in the African countries I've visited... In fact, it's applauded. I'll never forget a church service I observed in which a preacher asked attendees to greet their neighbor joyously: "Today is your day of fatness!"

Fatness, in this context, means more than just physique. It's associated with wealth of all sorts. In a continent struck by poverty, being big in all things -- wallet, house, and belt size -- is a sign of success. I was often told to gain weight, and complimented on days when I apparently looked "bigger." It's an understandable mentality when poverty is all around; when one escapes such a fate, seeking all things non-poor is a prized goal. What is harder to justify is the way that the "big man" concept fits into corruption as well. Opportunities to get rich are often taken; and big men become exactly that in all senses of the word. 

Obviously, this is a small subset, and certainly there are other reasons for obesity on the rise. (It doesn't help that African food is often rich -- for example in Sierra Leone: rice, palm oil, cassava, palm oil, meat, and more palm-oil fried plantains -- so workers moving from the fields to desk jobs are likely to take in more calories than a sedentary lifestyle allows). 

But if I'm right, or if being big remains a big goal, then Africa's slow rise out of poverty could bring with it a rise of obesity. But perhaps being big won't be so special anymore -- and another fashion will fill its place. 

AFP/Getty Images 

As the world watches Iran, one unexpected country is paying particularly acute attention: Uganda. That country's oil-exporting future lies -- for now at least -- in the hands of whoever sits in power in Tehran.

The country's President Yoweri Museveni recently concluded talks with Iran's President Mahmood Ahmadinejad for the  construction of an oil refinery in the East African country. At least some of the funding for the refinery will come from Iran (reports vary on how much -- for example here and here). Tehran also promised to instruct Ugandans at its University of Petroleum Studies and invest throughout the oil pumping chain.

Uganda is a newcomer to the world of oil export. Its resources, now estimated at 2 billion barrells (Iran, by comparison, has reserves of about 130 billion), are just now beginning to come online. The deal with Iran is aimed at making the country's oil industry self-sufficient and value added; unlike other exporters on the continent such as Nigeria, crude oil will be refined in country and sent as a finished product for export. In theory, that could save the country some money -- and the need to ironically re-import its own gasoline. But some wonder if the refinery, at an estimated cost of $1.3 billion, will really be cost effective for a country looking to pump out just 100,000 barrels per day.

Either way, it's somewhat disconcerting to imagine Uganda following in Iran's path as an energy giant. The behemoth of oil revenues failed to improve the country's lot last year; and instead, economic calamity set in. If Uganda looks to that example, Iran's election outcome isn't the only gamble in the country's future. 

When Somalia drops out of the news, it doesn't usually mean that it's all quiet on the East African front. It just means there's no pirates involved.

That's exactly what the weekend looked like in Somalia: eventful but (relatively) pirate free. Now, the big troubles are on land. On Saturday, a desperate Somali government begged neighboring countries for troops to shore up its grip on, well, a few blocks of the capital, Mogadishu. 

On Sunday, militant group al-Shabab promised to kill any foreign troops that came to Somalia to bring calm. (Actually, the spokesman was a little more explicit: "We tell you that our dogs and cats will enjoy eating the dead bodies of your boys if you try to respond to the calls of these stooges.")

And sure enough, yesterday, the Christian Science Monitor reported that Ethiopian troops, who left Somalia earlier this year after several years of occuption, are back and ready to defend the government -- for better or for worse. 

What's going on in Somalia is the battle for the country's very soul that was supressed for several years under Ethiopian occupation, but has never really gone away. The two major Islamist groups posing a challenge to the central government today are al-Shabab, and Hizbul Islam, headed by the often Eritrea-based Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. They control much of Somalia, from what scant press reports can tell. Their forces are more armed and numerous than those of the government. And in some cases, they have a bit more street credibility as well. If either were to take power, as they have in some localities, they would likely install Sharia law. Both forces resisted the unpopular Ethiopian occupation the first time around. This time would be no different. 

What is different is that this time around, the Islamist groups are looking  more serious than mere street gangs. A report in the East African compares Somalia to Afghanistan and Pakistan -- and makes the not-so-unimagineable claim that  "Last month, several hundred jihadis came to link up with Al Shabaab's latest offensive, and now the Taliban are reportedly flocking to Somalia en masse."

Makes the pirates look pretty benign, if you ask me. 

Getty Images

Back in February, International Crisis Group warned of "Nepal's Faltering Peace Process." Despite the initially high hopes for peace after the Maoists were elected in 2008, today their warning looks prescient: a general stike is paralyzing the capital city and the constitutional reform promised in the peace agreement seems more distant than ever. It's the latest escalation in a crisis that puts the country closest to conflict that it has been since the civil war ended in 2006.

 

The crisis gained momentum last month Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal quit the government after the President refused to allow Dahal to sack the army chief. The army, Dahal argued, was holding up one of the key tenents of the peace agreement: the reintegration of Maoist troops into the Nepali army.

Now with a new Prime Minister in office, the political crisis has reached fever pitch. As Crisis Group analyst Rhoderick Chalmers recently put it, "with politics more militarised than at any point since the April 2006 peoples movement, Kathmandus ministerial musical chairs is not a risk- free parlour game."  Today's strike is apparently in anger over the killing of Maoist youth leader Rajendra Phuyal. No one has taken the blame for his death, but the Maoists blame political opponents.

Not to be a pessimist, but all the signs indicate that things will get worse before they get better. It's a perfect storm, if politics allows it to be unleashed: increasing impuntiy on the streets, youth anger, a lack of political consensus, deviation from the peace agreement, and a whole slew of Maoist army members who are for now voluntarily housed in UN camps -- but whose patience, one might imagine, won't last forever.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. 

AFP/Getty Images